Myanmar is on the verge of chaos again. In recent days, both the Myanmese people and the international community have raised concerns about whether the process of democratization and the upcoming general elections will be carried out as expected.
A terrible artillery attack by the Myanmese army on a Kachin Independence Army training camp in November broke a nationwide cease-fire between the Myanmese government and the United Nationalities Federal Council. Since then, military conflicts between both sides have been aggravated, with more local armed forces joining the confrontation with the government.
Such escalation of tensions has rarely been seen in recent years, and as of now, military confrontations are still expanding as neither side is willing to compromise. It is a huge setback for Myanmar's national reconciliation, which has been promoted by President U Thein Sein since he took office.
The Myanmese government and the oppositions are caught in a tug of war over a prominent constitutional revision. The amendment in question is key to whether the current leader of the National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu Kyi, can be a candidate for the presidential election. The government once agreed to talk about constitutional revision with opposition parties, but it soon went back on its promise and announced that it was impossible to revise the constitution before the 2015 elections. After a while, it called for bigger multilateral negotiations about how to amend the constitution. Such inconsistency has confused both the Myanmese people and the international community, making it impossible to figure out Myanmar's next move.
Myanmar's foreign relations have also been destabilized by the intervention of some forces with ulterior motives. China-Myanmar relations have fallen victim to the current circumstances. Last month, protesters against the Letpadaung copper mine, a project jointly backed by China and Myanmar, engaged in a physical fight with local police. Recently, the Myanmese army arrested over 100 Chinese on charges of alleged illegal logging.
It is not a coincidence that Myanmar has entered an eventful season. The upcoming elections will play a decisive role in the future of the country's politics. All political forces, big or small, are attempting to expand their influence by taking advantage of this opportunity. The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party still has the upper hand, and the military has a dominant advantage in Myanmar's political arena. They are eager to win this election.
Although there is controversy and infighting among the ruling authorities, their major goal of winning the elections is the same. Most of the current conflicts and confusion are the result of this patchwork of both cooperation and competition among the ruling authorities. Latent conflicts have been triggered by the elections. But chaos has disturbed Myanmar's reform and development. If the situation continues like this, it will pose severe threats to all walks of life. The Myanmese authorities should realize that it is high time for them to do something to end the mess and put Myanmar's democratization and reform back on track. Only by doing so will the Myanmese people escape being victimized by endless conflicts.
The author is a research fellow at Yunnan Academy of Southeast Asian and South Asian Studies, Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn