OPEC unlikely to lose oil market influence to US shale producers

Source:AFP Published: 2015-6-7 18:28:01

Analysts say cartel still has clout


The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which announced at its recent meeting that it would not change output levels, remains the dominant force in the global oil market, analysts said, despite the growing influence of US shale producers.

The 12-nation OPEC switched its production strategy in November to push down prices and hurt high-cost US shale producers, who need elevated prices to stay profitable.

OPEC ditched its traditional role of supporting higher prices to boost revenues, and instead left its output ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day - despite a collapse in prices and a stubborn global supply glut that is fueled partly by US shale.

The policy was extended Friday when the cartel of producers from Africa, Latin America and the Middle East decided to leave the taps open, sparking questions from some quarters about the increasing influence of US shale on the oil market.

OPEC's dozen members pump a third of the world's crude oil.

"OPEC members continue to play a key role in the current conditions of the oil market," said senior energy analyst Myrto Sokou at the Sucden brokerage in London. "We cannot necessarily say that OPEC is losing its price influence on oil prices to the US shale production. OPEC still has very significant influence over the current crude oil prices."

However, the US shale oil production has continued to grow over the last few months, Sokou said.

The US has significantly ramped up its production of oil extracted from hard-to-reach shale.

But Capital Economics commodities analyst Thomas Pugh also downplayed talk that the US shale boom could weaken OPEC's standing.

"I don't think it's fair to say that OPEC is losing influence to the US," Pugh told AFP. "Production in the two regions is managed very differently. OPEC can take strategic decisions to manage output to manipulate prices, whereas US production is controlled by hundreds of small firms who manage production based on market conditions."

"Obviously OPEC as a group still controls a much larger share of the market than the US, but if the US could act as one oil producer, in the same way that the Gulf states do, it would make it significantly more powerful," he said.

Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at trading website forex.com, conceded that the cartel was less powerful than it used to be, due in part to strong oil output in non-OPEC member Russia. Yet it still remained a "dominant force."

AFP


Posted in: Markets

blog comments powered by Disqus