Suspension of new IPOs should be short-lived

By Doug Young Source:Global Times Published: 2015-7-6 23:23:17

Freeze hinders internationalization efforts, encourages risk-taking


Illustration: Luo Xuan/GT



After several days of rumors, China's securities regulator announced a temporary suspension of all IPOs over the weekend in a bid to halt a slide that has seen the key Shanghai index tumble nearly 30 percent over the past month. While such a step is understandable and may even help to calm the markets, it is misguided and should be allowed to quickly expire for a number of reasons.

A long-term freeze will hinder China's drive to internationalize its markets, since it demonstrates that the central government won't let market forces prevail and instead will step in to rescue investors every time they spend their money irresponsibly. Such a long-term suspension would also create uncertainty for the many private firms that are some of China's most dynamic companies, potentially cutting off a vital funding source just when they need it to fuel their rapid growth.

Allowing the markets to fall further would certainly cause pain for many investors, especially those who entered the stock market well after it began its meteoric rise late last year. But experience is often the best teacher, and allowing these investors to suffer losses could be the best way to prevent similar irresponsible behavior in the future and bring more market stability.

China's stock markets have been on a roller coaster ride over the last year, starting with a rally that began in November 2014 when the People's Bank of China (PBC), the central bank, began cutting interest rates to bolster China's slowing economy. That rally saw the main Shanghai Composite Index double at its peak in early June.

But the rally has come to an abrupt end, with the index dropping about 27 percent over the last four weeks. Some reports have pointed out that almost $3 trillion in market value has been wiped out in the sell-off. But far more value was also created in the earlier rally.

In response to the sell-off, the PBC took the unusual step of lowering interest rates and banks' reserve requirement ratios on June 28 to boost market sentiment. The government has also taken other steps to boost confidence and liquidity, including this latest halt of new IPOs.

That freeze came together quite rapidly, and followed an announcement by the China Securities Regulatory Commission that it would slow the number of new listings. Such IPOs can put downward pressure on the market because they draw money away from trading in already-listed companies. Some 28 companies preparing for IPOs issued their own statements saying they would temporarily halt their plans due to market volatility.

This latest freeze is consistent with a pattern that has seen the CSRC halt new IPOs at times of weakness, including the freeze that began in late 2012 and lasted through all of 2013. It's unclear if the latest freeze will achieve its goal of helping to support the markets. But regardless of that, it ultimately sends the wrong signal on a number of fronts.

Most importantly, the freeze tells speculators that the central government will try to rescue them whenever they invest irresponsibly. It also sends a troublesome signal to young, private companies that genuinely need money to finance their growth and were planning to get such funds via public listings.

Most such companies previously listed in Hong Kong and New York due to tough conditions in China's own system. Many were considering returning home to China during the earlier stock market rally as the regulator relaxed some of those restrictions, though this IPO freeze could cause many to now reconsider that strategy.

Such a freeze will also hurt China's drive to internationalize its markets, running contrary to the government's goal to let the market play a bigger role in allocating resources. Such market forces already do a far better job of regulating IPO activity in the West, since companies typically don't float when investor sentiment is weak and usually wait until conditions improve.

Having declared the latest freeze, it's already too late for the central government to back away from this step during the current stock market sell-off. But the CSRC should seriously consider a quick end to this latest freeze in a matter of weeks or even days, allowing the market to run its course.

That will send the strongest signal of all to everyone that market forces will drive China's financial markets, and anyone who wants to participate will need to understand those forces before they participate.

The author writes about China's company news at www.youngchinabiz.com. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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