At a forum held in Beijing over the weekend, Vice Minister of Finance Zhu Guangyao offered a fairly optimistic view about growth during the upcoming five-year period of 2016-20. Zhu suggested that China's annual growth rate during the period could stay at 7-8 percent. 

While China's growth target of around 7 percent for this year is achievable, growth projections for the economy over the next five years are likely to be ratcheted down slightly, along with the economy's transition toward a "new normal" of slower but more balanced growth.

The most likely scenario is growth rates of 6.5-7 percent, given that China's GDP is less likely to grow quickly amid the country's transition toward a model based on more sustainable growth.

First, a rise in the share of the services sector in the country's overall GDP would mean that China is moving toward a more sustainable economic model, but it would also probably result in slightly weaker growth momentum than has been seen over the past few decades, when exports and investment were the main growth engines.

Second, the country's demographic dividend has also been fading against the backdrop of an ageing population and rising labor costs, further weakening the likelihood of sustained rapid growth rates.

That said, mid- to high-speed growth can be expected over the next five years, buttressed by wide-ranging reform drives to move up the economic value chain.

Zhu Guangyao also mentioned another key figure - per capita GDP - forecasting that the figure will hit $10,000 by 2020, realizing the country's long-held goal of becoming a moderately well-off society.

There is almost no doubt that per capita GDP will meet the goal of $10,000 five years from now, given that the current level is already close to the goal.

The country's per capita GDP reached $7,575 in 2014, according to calculations based on official data. This means that China has comfortably met its target of raising per capita GDP above $5,000 during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2010-15) period.

With the yuan's exchange rate expected to be largely stable against the US dollar in years to come, China's per capita GDP should double its goal set for the five years ending 2015.

Furthermore, an increasingly affluent population will not necessarily result in a widening income gap.

A range of factors could instead contribute to greater income equality, including the country's urbanization drive and ramped-up efforts to reform income distribution. This could help the country to develop an olive-shaped society, with the middle-income group expanding impressively.

As long as the reforms are unwavering, the Chinese economy can certainly convert its growth potential into sustainable prosperity for its citizens.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Li Qiaoyi based on an interview with Xu Hongcai, a senior economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a Beijing-based think tank. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn