Putin visit unlikely to close rift with Tokyo

By Wang Haiyun Source:Global Times Published: 2015-7-31 0:13:01

The Japan-Russia relationship has been under the media spotlight recently. On the one hand, Tokyo is looking forward to a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin. But on the other, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that he will visit the Kuril Islands, Russia-held territory at the top of Hokkaido known as the Northern Territories in Japan, an issue over which Japan has objected diplomatically to the Russian side. It seems that the relationship between Tokyo and Moscow is becoming a confusing one as the two countries are getting closer in some reports, but relations are deteriorating elsewhere.

But it is highly unlikely the two countries will form an alliance. Their strategic interests are in conflict.

Russia is a freshly emerging non-Western power and Japan is a developed country and an important member of the Western world. Moscow's biggest security threat is from the US-dominated military alliances. Japan, on the other hand, has played an active role in these alliances.

After the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Tokyo has followed Washington in imposing sanctions against Moscow. This has angered Russia. Besides, Moscow and Tokyo have still not signed a comprehensive peace treaty 70 years after the end of WWII.

In addition, the strategic concepts of Japan and Russia are hugely different. Russia values world multi-polarization, democratic international relations and the diversity of world civilizations. It strongly advocates building an equitable and just international political and economic order, upholds the non-interference principle and respects other countries' independent choices of development paths.

However, Japan follows the US, which violently violates these principles. Moscow and Tokyo are different in terms of their view of the history of WWII and the implementation of international laws for the victorious nations in the war.

Besides, there are a lot of strategic divergences between Tokyo and Moscow. The territorial dispute defies an easy solution. Although the former Soviet Union, and later Russia, both expressed the commitment that two of the four islands will be returned to Japan once a peace treaty is signed, they have never promised to return all four islands.

Today, it becomes even more unlikely that Russia would satisfy Japan's territorial demands. The Kuril Islands have rich fishery resources and high military value. Russia has also witnessed a rise in nationalism and some hard-line authorities have opposed the reconciliation with Japan on the territorial dispute. With the war's anniversary upcoming, the time is particularly bad to reconcile. And in Japan's case, it wants all the four islands.

Improving the bilateral relationship between the two countries is mainly done out of realistic interests. Russia attempts to diminish the negative effects of Western sanctions and wants support from Japan. Japan's economic and technical support as well as the share of its oil and gas market are essential for Russia to counter the security threats from the West. Japan attempts to accumulate strengths to challenge China and is eager for Russia's oil and gas.

There are many structural barriers between Russia and Japan. Even if the relationship between the two sides may see detente, it will not greatly improve. It is reasonable to be alert of the potential danger of the closer Russia-Japan ties on China, but it is not necessary to be too worried about it.

The author is an expert from the China International Institute for Strategic Society. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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