As Medvedev visits disputed Kuril Islands, Abe holds on to hopes

By Yin Hu Source:Global Times Published: 2015-8-30 19:38:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT


Despite Japanese opposition, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev paid a visit to the disputed Southern Kuril Islands, known as the Northern Territories in Japan, on August 22. As a protest, Japan postponed Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida's visit to Russia which was originally scheduled for late August and early September. The Japan-Russia relationship has witnessed a downturn again.

The disputed islands are located between Russia's Kamchatka Peninsula and Japan's Hokkaido. They have been under Russian control since the end of WWII. The simmering dispute over the islands has blocked a peace treaty between the two sides.

Before this trip, Medvedev visited the Southern Kuril Islands in November 2010 and July 2012. Medvedev undertook an inspection of the islands again on the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII, which has conveyed Russia's determination to safeguard its territory and reflected the importance Russia attaches to the Southern Kuril Islands.

Medvedev's visit, made at a time when Russia has been experiencing international and domestic crises and when the Russia-Japan relationship remains volatile, has produced significant effects.

First, Russia and Japan resumed negotiations over the islands at vice ministerial level on August 19, 2013. Medvedev, during his visit, demonstrated Russia's actual control over the region and staked out a hard line against Japan.

Second, Medvedev's visit facilitated the implementation of the federal target program "Socioeconomic Development of the Kuril Islands (Sakhalin Region), 2016-2025," which was adopted by Russian government on August 10, 2015.

Third, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that claiming sovereignty over Kuril Islands makes Japan the only country that questions the results of WWII. By taking action on the 70th anniversary of the end of WWII, Medvedev warned Japan not to negate history.

Fourth, influenced by many factors, Russia's economy has witnessed negative growth in 2015. Patriotism, in the period of a weak economy, has become an effective way to guarantee support from citizens. Medvedev's visit has provoked patriotic sentiments and strengthened national cohesion.

Fifth, the Japanese government lined up with other US-led Western countries and imposed sanctions on Russia over the Crimea issue. Medvedev's visit reflected Russia's dissatisfaction.

Medvedev's visit reflected the formidable gulf between Russia and Japan and reconciliation will take time.

Despite this, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has shown enthusiasm for holding dialogues and top meetings with Russia. Abe, in the Upper House's budget committee session held on August 24, expressed regret over Medvedev's visit, but he pointed out that Japan will continue to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and make preparations for Putin's visit to Japan this year.

In terms of the Japan-Russia relationship, Abe stated that "What is significant for our country's national interests is to solve the territorial issue of the Northern Territories and sign the peace treaty." Why does Abe still take communicating with Russia so seriously even when the bilateral relationship is at a low ebb?

Under the situation where Japan's relationship with both China and South Korea, due to territorial disputes and historical issues, has stayed at a stalemate for a long time, building friendly ties with Russia has become important.

Personally, Abe has high expectations for Russia's policy toward Japan. Putin said in an interview in St Petersburg on June 20, 2015 that "it is possible to resolve any diplomatic problem" and it is "necessary" to meet Abe.

Abe, on June 24, officially invited Putin to Japan, an invite which has been accepted. However, Medvedev's visit to the islands disturbed Abe's plan. Yet Abe has not given up. He has been positively seeking remedial measures to keep communication with Russia.

In addition, due to the domestic anti-nuclear movement, Japan's demand for natural gas has increased. This is an important motive for Japan to promote cooperation in the field of energy with Russia.

In one word, Medvedev's visit conveyed the country's policy intentions. The visit has produced good political effects. Even if the Russia-Japan relationship is facing difficulties, the proactive policy adopted by the Abe government has revealed that the two sides will return to the negotiating table soon. However, it is not likely that Putin will make concessions over the islands any time soon.

The author is a research fellow at the Research Center for International Japanese Studies of Hosei University and chief research fellow at the Institute of East Asian Studies of Zhejiang Gongshang University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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