The Philippine Presidential Communications Operations Office announced recently that the nation has no plan to invite US military forces back to Subic Bay and will "never do anything that is against the Constitution or laws of the government." In April last year, Manila and Washington signed the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), providing the US access and use of a Philippine naval base. The controversial treaty is seen by many as unconstitutional.
Nationalistic sentiment is playing an important role in the government's decision whether to invite foreign troops back to Subic Bay. Admittedly, the Philippine military may look forward to the US return to its bases, in order to counter China in the South China Sea. The US forces, if invited back, would be within only hundreds of kilometers from the disputed islands. However, anti-Washington sentiment is prevailing in the nation, which was a colony of the US for decades.
The announcement was made at a time when political factions are fiercely competing to woo voters for the 2016 general election. Even if the current Philippine President Benigno Aquino will not receive a renewed mandate, his Liberal Party has to cater to the citizens in exchange for more votes. Given the prevalent domestic anti-US fever, announcing no plan to invite the US back will, for sure, help gain popularity among voters. At the current stage, the national economy and people's livelihoods carry much more weight than the military cooperation with Washington.
In addition, a number of obstacles will have to be overcome before the US Navy can return to Subic Bay. A Philippine constitutional provision prohibits the establishment of foreign military facilities. This means the Philippines may have to amend its law to make the 10-year EDCA, questioned as unconstitutional by the Supreme Court, to be accepted. Aquino has only months left in office, and thus he is not likely to bother himself with amending the national law, which would cost him a big chunk of the limited time and energy.
Although the US may not be invited back to Subic Bay, Manila and Washington will see intensified military cooperation in the future, which is determined by the alliance between the two. The defense cooperation can take various forms including joint drills and military communication.
The announcement will not weaken Manila-Washington security cooperation, nor will it impact the US position in the Asia-Pacific region. Besides the Philippines, the US has many other anchors for its pivot in the region such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Despite the Philippine government's decision, Washington can still carry out other military activities with other Asia-Pacific countries. Plus, it is very likely that Manila, under Washington's influence, will change its policy again in the near future.
Yet the degree of intimacy between Manila and Washington hinges on the attitude of the next government. The 2016 general election will bring a governmental reshuffle. The newly elected officials may not be as tough as the current hardliners. It is hard to predict the Philippines' relationship, under US influence, with China at the current stage.
However, the Manila-Beijing relationship is bound to see tensions before Aquino leaves office. A resolution in the arbitration case, which was filed unilaterally by the Philippines at The Hague over its territorial spats with China, is expected to come at the end of this year. By this time, the contention over the South China Sea will be aggravated.
The author is a research fellow from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn