Five main engines for continued growth boosting confidence in China’s economy

By Hu Angang Source:Global Times Published: 2015-11-22 20:33:01

China has been a key engine of growth during difficult times for the global economy in recent years. And now the world is watching China closely as its economy enters a "new normal" of slower growth.

Commenting on the current world economic situation at the just-concluded G20 Summit in Antalya, Turkey, President Xi Jinping said the impact of the international financial crisis can still be felt and that the world's economy is still going through a period of deep adjustment. Xi said China is confident and capable of achieving medium to high-speed growth and that it will continue to create opportunities for other nations.

Where does this confidence come from? According to Xi, China contributed more than 50 percent of the world's economic growth between 2009 and 2011 and still contributes 30 percent of the growth despite the recent slowdown.

As far as I'm concerned, China's economic growth is powered by five engines. The first is urbanization. The number of China's urban residents rose to 749 million in 2014 from 670 million in 2010, with an average annual increase of nearly 20 million. It is expected that the number could reach 800 million by 2020, in addition to around 100 million migrant workers and other residents living in cities. This growing urban population could create huge consumption power, as well as demand for infrastructure and for investment in public services facilities.

The second main driver is a new, more modern type of industrialization. According to the "Made in China 2025" plan unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang, China aims to become a strong manufacturing power by 2020. China's manufacturing will be integrated with the Internet and producer-service sectors will be boosted during the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20). This will serve as a key driver for economic growth.

The third is information, data and Internet-based development. China has the world's largest number of mobile phone users, Internet users and broadband users. In 2015 alone, information-based consumption will reach 3.2 trillion yuan (501.2 billion) and Internet-related industries are set to contribute more than 7 percent of the country's GDP. China will strive to increase the trend toward greater Internet use during the 13th Five-Year Plan.

The fourth key growth driver is agricultural modernization. This can help improve the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of China's agricultural sector, as well as making agricultural products safer and helping to save resources.

The last engine is infrastructure modernization. China has already built the world's largest highway network and high-speed railway network. It also has the largest installed power capacity and power grid in the world. And among the 10 global ports with the world's largest throughput, eight are in China. China will become a great power in building infrastructure.  

These five growth engines are interconnected, and will unleash huge demand. Against this backdrop, China will not only maintain its own medium to high-speed growth - it will also inject vigor into the sluggish world economy.

The author is director of the Institute for Contemporary China Studies at Tsinghua University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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