IS battle won’t bring Russia and Europe closer

By Jiang Yi Source:Global Times Published: 2015-11-24 22:43:01

A senior European diplomat revealed that Western leaders agreed to extend sanctions on Russia for its alleged intervention in eastern Ukraine by six months. The decision is said to have been made on the margins of the G20 meeting in Antalya, Turkey last week. Earlier, some observers noted that Western countries may seek cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin to fight against the Islamic State (IS) following the Paris attacks on November 13 which killed at least 129 people. Under these circumstances, whether prolonging sanctions against Moscow will affect the potential for cooperation is worth exploring.

As the current sanctions are due to expire next January, the Western countries have to make a decision at this point whether to extend the sanctions or not.

From the Western perspective, although tensions in eastern Ukraine have been eased to some degree, the Minsk peace deal has not been fully implemented. In their eyes, pro-Russian militants have failed to realize 100 percent cease-fire in the region. There is still some distance to go for the Kremlin to meet the expectations of the West.

This may be the reason for the extension of sanctions in spite of the calls for collaboration with Putin in the Middle East.

There is no doubt that the EU has been pressured by the White House over this decision. 2016 is an election year for the US. President Barack Obama, who has always been criticized as weak by his opponents, dares not back off over the Ukrainian crisis at this point.

It is not surprising that the White House is pressing the EU for a united front.

Some European countries, such as France and Germany, may have divergences with their allies over the flexibility of the sanctions. Yet such divergence is just a matter of the degree of the sanctions. In principle, the EU synchronizes with the US.

Otherwise, these European countries would have already sent signals of easing or dropping sanctions on the Kremlin by now.

Admittedly, Moscow and the West have forged a consensus on cracking down upon IS and both sides have tactical collaborations in the Middle East. However, this is just functional cooperation. The two sides still have conflicting stances.

For instance, from Russia's perspective, Ukraine shouldn't be allowed to join the West or used to expand NATO's sphere of influence. Meanwhile, Moscow's alleged intervention in the former Soviet state threatens Europe's solidarity and unity in Western eyes. The current cooperation does not mean Russia and the West will compromise on matters of principle.

Maintaining an antagonistic relationship on essential issues while cooperating on some concrete items is one of the features of the international relations after the Cold War. While there was only confrontation between the US and Russia during the Cold War, the two sides have started to collaborate with each other in certain areas, for instance, anti-terrorism operations.

Cooperation, which is to prevent crises from escalating into a real war, may ease but will not eradicate the fundamental conflicts between the West and the Kremlin. Despite the current collaborations, the bilateral relationship is unlikely to warm.

In addition, although Putin and the Western leaders agreed to jointly crack down upon IS in the Middle East, they have divergent views over the specific strategies of the operations, especially over the future of the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

In fact, a unified anti-terrorism coalition has not been formed yet.

It is true that the military contacts between Russia and some Western nations, for instance, France and the US, are helpful.

However, there is still a long way to go before a sincere and effective coalition can be established in the Middle East. Thus, it is hard to predict the impact of the extended sanctions over the anti-terrorism cooperation at the current stage.

How the Russia-West relationship will develop in 2016 largely depends on the situation in eastern Ukraine. Judging from the current circumstances, the bilateral relationship is unlikely to see an improvement in spite of the cooperation.

With the Ukrainian crisis simmering for years, there is little chance of the Kremlin quitting the game. Confronting sentiments will always linger as long as Moscow fails to meet the Western requirements over the Ukrainian crisis.

The author is a research fellow of Russian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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