Policy won’t raise birthrate: report

By Li Ruohan Source:Global Times Published: 2015-12-3 0:18:02

Low interest in 2nd children will prevent fertility rebound


China's recent policy to allow all couples to have a second baby will not significantly boost the country's low fertility rate, according to a report released by China's leading State-run think tank on Wednesday.

The policy might cause fluctuations in the birthrate, but will not incite a significant rebound, read the report released by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, news site chinanews.com reported on Wednesday.

The report explained that Chinese couples' willingness to have a second baby is "not high," so fewer couples will take real action following the policy change, while couples of childbearing age will take time to consider and may have a baby eventually.

Mu Guangzong, a professor at Peking University's Institute of Population Research, agreed with the report and told the Global Times that lifting the ban on second children only grants couples the right to have a second baby, but their physical capability and willingness to have a second baby will ultimately determine the birthrate.

Mu added that couples born in the 1970s have missed the best age for childbearing, while not many people born after 1980 have a strong desire to have a second baby, leading to a low birthrate.

An online survey of 8,491 respondents conducted by news portal sohu.com in July showed that although 95 percent favored a policy allowing couples to have a second child if either is an only child, only 36 percent said they would have a second child.

In addition to granting permission to have a second child, the government should also offer incentives such as rewards and subsidies to encourage all eligible couples to take advantage of the new policy, said Mu.

"People will not have a baby until they are assured they can afford to raise one," Ma Li, director of the China Population and Development Research Center - a think tank associated with China's National Health and Family Planning Commission - told the Global Times.

However, even if China encourages childbearing, any increase in the birthrate will be limited, as global precedents suggest the fertility rate will not rebound sharply when it is  lower than 1.5, the report said.

According to Chinese experts, the country's fertility rate has lingered at around 1.5 children per woman of childbearing age for the past few years.

A draft amendment to China's Population and Family Planning Law allowing all couples in China to have a second child was approved by the State Council on Wednesday and will be handed over to China's top legislator for review, chinanews.com reported.

The policy aims to improve the population structure rather than merely boosting population growth, said Ma.

Mu suggested that China needs to shift away from perceiving people as a burden to treasuring them as a resource for social development.



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