US power can’t carry unpredictable world

Source:Global Times Published: 2016-1-5 0:53:01

Joseph Nye



Editor's Note:

The world was troubled by many problems in 2015, from a spate of terrorist attacks and the continuing battles in the Middle East to tensions between major powers and the impacts of global shifts. On behalf of the Global Times, Lu Keli and Liu Xinxin, two scholars from Renmin University of China, interviewed Joseph Nye, Harvard University professor best known for his "soft power" theory, on his insights about the major events that happened last year, and his foresight about where the world will head in 2016.

Q: Looking back at 2015, which events do you think have influenced the world most? Why?

Nye: The Paris terrorist attack and the migration crisis in Europe have both had powerful effects on the stability of Europe and that has a big effect on the world. Interestingly, both are tied to chaos in the Middle East, and the Syrian civil war. On the other hand, the nuclear deal between Iran and six powers, including China, helped avoid a war in that region. The Xi-Obama summit helped stability in Asia by reducing the differences between the US and China on cyber and climate issues, and paving the way for a successful outcome of the Paris climate conference.

Q: Is the current world in a very unpredictable phase?

Nye: The world is in a very unpredictable phase, but people sometimes forget that has been true in the past as well:  Think of 1949 and the founding of the Peoples Republic of China; 1956 and the Soviet invasion of Hungary and the British/French invasion of Egypt over Suez; 1968 and the Vietnam War, and so forth.

Q: At the end of December 2014, US economist Joseph Stiglitz said that 2015 is "the first year of the Chinese century," You have emphasized that the American Century will continue. Many people think that both of the statements are inflated and that the century will "belong" to neither. What do you think? 

Nye: In 2014, China exceeded the size of the US economy in purchasing power parity, but as I explain in my book, that is a poor measure of economic power. 

At exchange rates, China was a $10 trillion dollar economy and the US an $18 trillion economy. But the basic point is correct that to deal with transnational problems will require cooperation between the US and China and others.

Q: The book Is The American Century Over? you published this year caused wide concern in the international strategic circles. You argued that the American century will continue for several decades. Why, given the problems in the Middle East and elsewhere?

Nye: In overall global power, whether economic, military or soft power, my book argues that no country is likely to be more powerful than the US over the next quarter century, but that is consistent with the view that US power in the Middle East is less today than 25 years ago because of the revolutions in the region. No external power is in control there.

Even if it remains the most powerful nation, the US will not have hegemonic control. Nor will any other country. Many of the critical issues like monetary stability, climate change, anti-terrorism, cyber security and others will require cooperation among countries. A decade ago I said that the paradox of US power was that the world's only superpower could not go it alone.

Q: Looking back at 2015, what do you think was the biggest event in China?

Nye: In the long run, the most important event will be whether the 13th Five Year Plan is successfully implemented or not. It is a sensible change in China's development strategy, but fraught with problems. I hope it works.

Q: Which country do you think have accumulated, applied "soft power" best and most effectively?

Nye: A recent study by Portland, a British consultancy, ranked Britain and Germany at the top in terms of soft power. But many small countries also do well, for example, Norway and Singapore.

Q: Are the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Belt and Road expanding and consolidating China's networks?

Nye: I think the AIIB is a good thing, and I am glad that the US has withdrawn its opposition.

Similarly, if China develops the infrastructure of other countries through its Belt and Road plan, that can be good for the world. Development is not a zero sum game.

Q: What about Russia? What do you think about its participation in Syria's strike against IS as well as the reaction when its fighter was shot down by Turkey?

Nye: In my book, I argue that Russia is a country in decline both demographically and economically. Putin has tried interventions in Ukraine and Syria to bolster Russia's reputation, but they are unlikely to succeed and carry considerable risk.



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