The Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) convenes its 12th National Congress from January 20 to 28. The congress will elect a new leadership. The suspense over this leadership change in a competitive election has drawn increasing attention from the outside world. With a strong momentum of economic development and inflow of foreign investment, the country is undertaking a fundamental task to boost national development and maintain political stability. As external forces are infiltrating political influence into Vietnamese society, challenges loom ahead as Vietnam sticks to the political path it has adopted. This has become a topic of heated discussion both within and outside the country.

Western opinion considers the leadership reshuffle is the focus of the CPV national congress and divides the party into varied groups. As shown in the past, Westerners are used to exaggerating inner party struggles, which is likely to make their analysis and conclusion extreme. 

The national path of Vietnam is probably more stable than the West forecasts. No matter who heads the party, the CPV will unswervingly adhere to the socialist road. At a time when the achievements of Vietnamese reform have been widely recognized both at home and abroad, there is no logical rationale for Vietnam to change its course. 

The leadership change is also unlikely to bring major changes to the diplomatic guidelines. Hanoi will continue to attach attention to its relationship with China, striking a balance between bilateral friendly cooperation and the spat over South China Sea islands and reefs. It will continue to develop ties with the US. Vietnam will not stop bickering with China over territory out of concerns for friendship, nor will it vandalize Beijing-Hanoi strategic ties because it will rely on the US for backing in the South China Sea disputes.  

Vietnam maintaining its political stability is in the interest of China. At a time when Western political infiltration is still active, the interdependence of national interests between Beijing and Hanoi makes bilateral ties irreplaceable and such interdependence works to frame all the complexity of the bilateral issues. China-Vietnam trade volume reached $90 billion in 2015 and China has been Vietnam's largest trading partner for 12 consecutive years. Though Vietnam has joined the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership, the position of China as its largest trading partner is almost irreplaceable. The two countries share the same destiny.

Washington-Hanoi ties also hold great potential, but large-scale social exchange also bears risk. The Vietnamese who fled to America after the war and are supported by certain factions in mainstream American society, would like to see the current Vietnam regime toppled. Not having the size of China, Vietnam will face a long-term challenge to maintain the nation's political stability.

Conflict between the two countries will not hold back the goodwill many Chinese have toward Vietnam.