Confidence in China’s economy based on long-term outlook, despite Davos divide

By Hu Weijia Source:Global Times Published: 2016-1-24 23:28:01

The Chinese economy was a controversial topic at the four-day World Economic Forum, which concluded Saturday in Davos, Switzerland. On one hand, some Western media such as the New York Times pointed out the worries about China's economy that were expressed at Davos. On the other hand, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said at the forum she remains confident in China's economy. And The Guardian published an op-ed article with the headline "Don't blame China for these global economic jitters."

The intense global interest in China's economy is unprecedented, and analysts forecast it would be a hot topic of conversation at Davos following the recent stock market volatility, the yuan's tumble and the recent release of the full-year 2015 economic data, which showed that China's economy grew by 6.9 percent in 2015, the lowest pace in 25 years. The comments about China's economy at the Davos forum reflect the complex situation facing China's economy and also the importance of the country's economy to the rest of the world.

It is understandable that there were some contrasting viewpoints at Davos. Some chief executives and investors criticized China for its weakening currency and unstable stock market, and some even said China is perhaps the root cause of the current global financial uncertainties. But people who are pessimistic about China's economic outlook tend to focus only on the short-term performance of its economy and therefore worry about its spillover effect on the rest of the world.

It also makes sense for global leaders to pay attention to Lagarde's words. The IMF chief said she was not too concerned about fluctuations in China because having a certain degree of volatility is normal as the country's markets mature. US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew also said there was a need to look at things "in a longer-term way."

In the foreign exchange market, the recent weakening of China's currency against the US dollar has stoked widespread concerns around the world. But there has been less discussion of the fact that it happened after China's central bank changed the way it set the yuan's central parity rate in August last year. The purpose of the move was to make the daily yuan rate more responsive to market forces, and the recent depreciation of the yuan can be seen as a correction based on market forces in the wake of the US interest rate hike in December.

It is natural and normal to see more frequent volatility amid the changes being made to how the country's economy is managed and as it moves toward a more market-oriented economy.

Lagarde said at Davos that she remains confident that the Chinese authorities will be able to guide the country during its transition period.

The confidence in the Chinese economy comes from the Chinese authorities' ability to maintain economic stability. The short term fluctuations in the country's financial markets and slower growth in its economy reflect the fact that Chinese markets are becoming more mature and more responsive to market forces. The international community should also get used to the changes China's economy is undergoing during its transition. 

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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