Self-correction leads to China's bear run

By Wang Cong Source:Global Times Published: 2016-1-27 0:58:01

Ongoing market pessimism contributes to 13-month lows


Chinese shares tumbled to 13-month lows on Tuesday, with major indexes plunging more than 6 percent.

Analysts said Tuesday's slide in the mainland stock market is a reflection that the market is still going through a correction period after earlier volatility, and ongoing "pessimism" about global and domestic economies also contributed.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 6.42 percent, or 188.73 points, to close at 2,749.79, which, according to media reports, is the lowest level since December 2014.

Shares traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also saw sharp price drops, with the Shenzhen Composite Index plunging 6.96 percent, or 708.98 points, to close at 9,483.55.

The CSI300 index, which tracks the performance of the largest 300 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, dropped 6.02 percent, or 188.38 points, to close at 2,940.51.

The ChiNext Index, the NASDAQ-style board of growth enterprises, also plummeted 7.63 percent, or 164.78 points to 1,994.05.

"Technical factors" led to Tuesday's market loss, said Dong Dengxin, director of the Financial Securities Institute at Wuhan University of Science and Technology.

"The market is in self-correction to recover from the volatility it experienced since the beginning of the year," Dong told the Global Times on Tuesday.

Chinese shares had a rough start this year. On the first trading day of the year on January 4, the CSI300 index lost 7 percent, before trading was suspended under a circuit-breaker mechanism that began on the same day.

On January 7, the CSI300 plunged 7 percent, triggering the mechanism for the second time, and trading was halted just half an hour after the market opened that day.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced the same day it had suspended the mechanism.

Dong said Tuesday's share price drops are a continuation of the earlier turmoil.

But he added that concerns over slower growth in the Chinese economy are the broader reason behind the sell-off.   

Lack of confidence

"Investors are not confident in the economy," Dong added. "And when they are not confident, they sell their shares."

In 2015, China's economy grew by 6.9 percent from a year earlier, according to data released on January 19 by the National Bureau of Statistics. Last year's growth rate was the slowest for the world's second-largest economy in 25 years.

This year's growth outlook remains dim, with analysts predicting a further slowdown. Dong said he predicts a 6.5-6.7 percent growth this year.

Concerns over capital outflows also affected investors' confidence, analysts said. Bloomberg estimates that capital outflows from the Chinese mainland could reach a record $1 billion in 2015. 

Li Daxiao, chief economist at Yingda Securities, also said Tuesday's slide was an expression of investors' "sentiment" over the slower economy.

Adding to investors' concerns over the domestic economy was "pessimism" in global stock markets, Li told the Global Times on Tuesday.

On Tuesday, major stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region mirrored Chinese market falls, with Japan's Nikkei falling 2.35 percent and South Korea's Kospi dropping 1.15 percent.

Analysts said plunging oil prices and slower global economic growth continue to haunt stock markets. Oil prices are currently at multiyear lows, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Though Dong said falling oil prices are supposed to benefit China, which is now the second-largest oil consumer behind the US, Li said he believes that the global pessimism is "contagious" and has spilled into the Chinese stock markets.

Rock bottom

Dong and Li said they believe that after Tuesday's loss, the Chinese stock markets have probably hit rock bottom, and are likely to slowly rebound.

"This is the darkness before the dawn," said Dong, adding it's now a good time to buy shares rather than sell. Li added that there are encouraging signs as the exchange rate stabilizes and liquidity improves.

The People's Bank of China, China's central bank, has injected 440 billion yuan ($67 billion) into the financial system through reverse-repurchase agreements, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

The National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday that China's economy is stabilizing in the long term, and dismissed billionaire investor George Soros' pessimism over China's economy.

In the past few days, Chinese media have been running commentaries against Soros' recent bet on the fall of Asian currencies.


Newspaper headline: Correction leads to bear run


Posted in: Markets, Economy

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