THAAD may thrust destructive arms race around Korean Peninsula

By Zhao Lixin Source:Global Times Published: 2016-2-17 19:03:01

A month after Pyongyang conducted the fourth nuclear test, it launched a satellite in violation of the UN resolution earlier this month. North Korea's aggressive stance and endless provocations have elevated the periodical crisis on the Korean Peninsula to a new height and strangled any expectation that the country's young leader would abandon nuclear weapons and bring reforms to North Korea. The prospects for the denuclearization of the peninsula are bleak and full of uncertainties.

In the aftermath of the latest nuclear test, China and the US differ sharply in their opinions over sanctions against North Korea.

Washington and Seoul are considering the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea. Despite divided opinions within South Korea, deployment will be a matter of time given the pressure from Washington.

The THAAD deployment appears to be an extension of the US policy on North Korea and to defend against threats by North Korean nuclear program and missiles.

Washington's solution to the threats is to refuse any negotiation with Pyongyang until Pyongyang abandons its nuclear program and insist on a hardline stance in Northeast Asian geopolitics.

The US and South Korea claim that the THAAD system only targets North Korea and won't impair China's security, but the system's monitoring range reaches far inland.

This far exceeds the defense needs of South Korea and will undermine the strategic security of China and other countries in the region.

Washington intends to use the deployment to strategically contain China and Russia alongside North Korea.

China objects to the THAAD deployment not because of strategic sensitivity.

The deployment might enhance the security of the US and its allies, but more significantly it will alter the security landscape of Northeast Asia or even Eurasia and break down the balance of global strategic power.

In particular, it will affect China's security strategy, military deployment, diplomacy, political decision-making and reputation as a great power. The THAAD deployment will become a major challenge to China's national security.

Once the THAAD system is deployed in South Korea, China's strategic missile force along the eastern coastline and 1,000 kilometers into the territory will be revealed and China's offensive capabilities will be crippled.

In this case, China will be the biggest victim of the THAAD system. The weakened strategic deterrence will considerably impact its international position and overall strength.

Given the US relations with Taiwan, the THAAD deployment will make it harder for China to reunite with Taiwan by force if the latter announces independence.

Washington may even sell the THAAD system to Taiwan to contain the Chinese mainland and bolster Taiwanese separatism.

Upon the completion of the THAAD deployment, the US may seek to connect it with the missile defense system in Japan and hence advances the formation of a Japan-South Korea military alliance to build another NATO in Asia.

If this comes true, the military threats facing China and Russia will far exceed that of any missile defense system. The two countries may be compelled to start an arms race by increasing nuclear arsenal and enhancing the penetration ability of nuclear weapons.

The THAAD deployment signifies the harsh US policy. It suggests that the US won't change its North Korea policy framework characterized by isolation, blockade, sanction and dialogues with preconditions. The US may use it to suppress the national security interests of China and Russia. The deployment will undermine Sino-South Korean relations and the political and strategic trust between China, Russia and the US.

As a result, it will neither ease tensions in the peninsula nor promote denuclearization.   

While China has ample reasons to object to the THAAD deployment, it may be unable to stop the process and thus has to work out countermeasures.

First and foremost, China needs to strengthen the survival ability of its strategic nuclear power to ensure nuclear deterrence. It also has to enhance the ability to counter, disrupt and destroy the missile defense system.

The major-power relations and stable geopolitical landscape constitute important foundation for global cooperation. China is willing to work with the US on diplomatic and international political issues and contribute to the denuclearization of the peninsula and the peaceful development of humanity.

But China does not want to be involved in an arms race with the US, while it will not tolerate direct military threats. If the US deems that the opinions and interests of China and Russia can be ignored, it actually bets with the future of human beings to consolidate its hegemony.

The author is director of the Department of International Political Science, College of Political Science and Public Management, Yanbian University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



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