China’s new GDP approach allows for flexibility amid global economic uncertainties

By Dan Steinbock Source:Global Times Published: 2016-3-7 0:13:12

Last week marked the opening of China's annual two sessions, or the annual plenary meetings of the mainland's top legislative and consultative bodies. These meetings offer an opportunity to observe China's economic and political trends, including the 13th Five-Year Plan, poverty alleviation and charity law, supply-side reform and reform of the judicial system, the "One Belt, One Road" initiative, green development, and the anti-corruption struggle.

Yet, public attention has been focused on China's new target of 6.5-7 percent growth for 2016. Typically, it has given rise to two misguided interpretations. One focuses on China's domestic economy, another on China's role in the world economy.

The first misreading implies that the new target is the direct result of China's economic slowdown. In reality, the range target is not unique. It was used in 1995 and, in the past two years, growth targets have been preceded with the word "about." In other words, since the global crisis of 2008-2009, the growth target has been regarded more as a flexible guideline.

In 2015, China's economy grew by 6.9 percent. Internationally, the performance was portrayed as the "slowest in 25 years." And yet - as I have shown before - the deceleration signals the eclipse of the mainland's industrialization. China's slower growth is consistent with its post-industrial era.

In the past few years, Premier Li Keqiang has pushed structural reforms to support a medium-term rebalancing toward consumption and innovation. He has shunned another huge stimulus, which would contribute to government debt, favoring targeted fiscal measures. Finally, he has promoted gradual deleveraging to reduce local government debt, which accumulated after the 2009 stimulus.

The new target does not undermine these priorities. On the contrary, it ensures greater flexibility in implementation - and that's vital amid increasing international uncertainty.

The second misreading implies that China's growth deceleration is the primary cause of diminished global growth prospects.

In this view, since China played a critical role fueling global growth after the 2008-9 crisis, the current global slowdown should be attributed to China as well. Moreover, the addition of $72 billion to the budget deficit is seen as further evidence of China's debt escalation.

Yet, in relative terms, that addition means a deficit of 3 percent of the GDP, instead of 2.4 percent in 2015. In relative terms, it matches the decrease in China's defense expenditure, which will fall to 7.6 percent of GDP from 10.1 percent in 2015. If anything, these budget items simply reflect China's balancing act between economic growth and pushing ahead with reforms.

What about China's role in the diminished global growth prospects? After the global crisis, the mainland did account for half of the global GDP growth, thanks to its huge stimulus. The contribution spared the international economy from a global depression.

Well, today, China's economy accounts for almost 15 percent of the world's GDP, but its growth continues to account for some 25 percent of global GDP growth.

In contrast, the major advanced economies - the US, Europe and Japan - barely achieve 0.5-2 percent growth. However, they still account for more than 52 percent of the world's GDP - more than twice as much as China.

Under these circumstances, the argument that China's growth deceleration fuels global uncertainty is flawed. While growth is decelerating in emerging economies, it has virtually halted in major advanced economies, despite more debt-taking.

According to the credit rating agency S&P, global sovereign borrowing will soar to $6.7 trillion in 2016. The US, Europe's core economies and Japan account for more than 72 percent of all commercial borrowing across the world. In view of population and economy, the role of the US (34 percent) and particularly Japan (24 percent) is grossly disproportionate.

In contrast, the role of the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - is less than 13 percent of the total. While China's share of borrowing (5.1 percent) is significant, it is about a seventh of that of the US. Moreover, in the coming decade, China has the potential to grow 2-3 times faster than major advanced economies, as long as market-oriented structural reforms prevail.

In view of the global economy, the real risk remains in major advanced economies - not just in emerging economies.

The author is the founder of Difference Group and is visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

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