Presidential candidates can’t easily shake off Aquino’s diplomatic legacy

By Ju Hailong Source:Global Times Published: 2016-5-6 0:08:01

In the middle of 2011, Philippine President Benigno Aquino III completely abandoned the balancing strategy toward the US and China adopted by his predecessor Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Instead, he began to implement a pro-US policy to contain China. 

In the following years, Manila purchased second-hand US weapons, cemented a military alliance with Washington, and offered the US the use of a few bases. The Philippines' adjusted US policy has served the US strategy of rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific.

Dwarfed by the rapidly warming US-Philippine relationship, Sino-Philippine relations have sharply worsened. During the period, the Philippine government renamed the western maritime area in the country, which is part of the South China Sea, the "West Philippine Sea."

Aquino shuttled among other ASEAN countries to solicit opposition against China's South China Sea propositions. Manila also sent its ship to confront Chinese vessels at Huangyan Island and filed a lawsuit against China over the South China Sea dispute with an arbitral tribunal in The Hague. The series of such acts have caused the bilateral relations to hit rock bottom.

The Philippine foreign policy under the leadership of Aquino, which primarily sets China a target, highly corresponds with the US Asia-Pacific strategy that sets China as a hypothetical enemy. In the strategic collision of China and the US, the Philippines has chosen to side with the US and, therefore has tied itself to the chariot of the US Asia-Pacific strategy, acting as a pawn to confront China.

The South China Sea issue cannot reflect the full picture of Sino-US relations. The two countries have wide cooperation apart from geopolitical security concerns.

However, Manila has put itself in an awkward position where it can only display its value in helping the US contain China. This hampers its initiative in policy recalibration when dealing with the US and China.

The Philippine presidential election starts on Monday. All candidates see the South China Sea issue as an important challenge they have to face up to if elected.

This demonstrates the great value of South China Sea maritime resources to the economic development of the Philippines. Meanwhile, the candidates have to bear multiple pressures when maneuvering between China, the US and electoral politics.

The last round of the Philippine presidential debate in April focused on the South China Sea issue.

Although the debate was fraught with irrational rabble-rousing in order to woo voters, it reflects the importance the candidates have given to the issue emotionally.

Concerning the candidates' attitude over the South China Sea dispute and their policies toward China and the US, the sensational and ignorant remarks by Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who is polling at just 2 percent, doesn't deserve attention.

The propositions of Mar Roxas, who is supported by the incumbent government, show he would follow Aquino's policy. Grace Poe has opposed China's South China Sea propositions.

Current frontrunner Rodrigo Duterte used to be backed by many Philippine intellectual elites as he opposes excessive dependence on the US and hostility against China. But in the debate, he shared similar propositions to seek risky benefits from the China-US strategic confrontation. Only Jejomar Binay has said he is willing to have face-to-face talks with Chinese leaders and resolve the dispute through diplomatic means.

Elites in the Philippines' academic and diplomatic fields more or less have all expressed their willingness to readjust their foreign policy. However, it's not easy work for a new president given the country's particular democratic system, the interests of political families and interested groups, as well as the US influence in the Philippine foreign policy.

As the Philippines has offered the US use of its military facilities and that the country's military and energy interest groups have a profound impact on its domestic politics, whoever is elected into office will be unlikely to erase Aquino's diplomatic legacies. This means, the Sino-Philippine relations won't see quick and substantive changes even after the new president is sworn in, whoever he or she is.

The author is vice dean of the School of International Studies, Jinan University and a research fellow at the Collaborative Innovation Center for South China Sea Studies. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn Follow us on Twitter @GTopinion



Posted in: Viewpoint

blog comments powered by Disqus