Editor's Note:

As the award on the South China Sea arbitration initiated by the Philippines against China is to be made on July 12, many observers are concerned about what impact the award will bring to the region. In an interview with Global Times (GT) reporter Sun Xiaobo, Termsak Chalermpalanupap (Termsak), who recently retired from his position at the ASEAN Secretariat and is now a visiting research fellow at the ASEAN Studies Center, the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, shared his insights. 

GT: In your latest article published in TODAY, you suggested three dos and three don'ts for ASEAN upon the arbitration award. Will the award intensify the divergences over the South China Sea disputes within ASEAN?

Termsak: It depends very much on the substance of the ruling. Generally, we can expect the arbitral tribunal to rule on the geophysical nature of each feature cited by the Philippines. But this doesn't necessarily mean it will be in the favor of the Philippines.

The arbitral tribunal will avoid a direct ruling on the nine-dash line, and instead will ask China to clarify the basis and the meaning of the nine-dash line. If this is the case, then there will be more time for all parties concerned to reconsider, formulate a new and better strategy, and negotiate an end to tensions and avoid an escalation of conflicts.

It is crucial that all ASEAN members realize they must not allow their differences on the South China Sea to further divide and weaken ASEAN. Without ASEAN unity, there will be no ASEAN centrality.

Without ASEAN centrality, member countries will have nothing to help them maintain peace and security in Southeast Asia.

GT: Will ASEAN react to the ruling as you suggested?

Termsak: I hope so. As a minimum, I think ASEAN should issue a positive statement to reiterate various universally recognized principles, including those already shown in the July 20 2012 ASEAN Six-Point Principles on the South China Sea. There is no need to endorse the ruling or to welcome or support it.

But it depends on how the new president of the Philippines responds. It is widely believed that President Rodrigo Duterte will be more receptive to dialogue and cooperation with China than his predecessor.

If the Philippines and China can agree to renew their bilateral talks and negotiations, then the tensions will decrease and the situation in the South China Sea will improve.

Duterte will want to improve bilateral relations with China for the benefit of the Philippines and its people. The bilateral relationship should improve and bring positive changes to both countries. This will be good for the ASEAN-China relationship, too.

GT: What's your take on the prospects of the US rebalance to the Asia Pacific?

Termsak: I agree with the analysis that the US rebalance to the Asia Pacific is only a "strategy." As such, it may change over time, and it may also change from president to president. But some countries in Southeast Asia and East Asia "welcome" the US rebalance or quietly encourage the continuing US military presence because they are intimidated by the aggressiveness of China in the South China Sea.

The US is always very active in the military side. It has a clear comparative advantage or even superiority in military forces and military technology. But the US has less of a comparative advantage in trade and other economic activities.

Governments may be more interested in the military presence of the US. But peoples everywhere want trade and economic cooperation, prosperity, and improvement of standards of living. This is the areas China can compete in and win over the hearts and minds of peoples.

Should Donald Trump win the presidential election - and now nobody can dismiss it as impossible; if Brexit can happen, Trump can win too - the US military presence in our part of the world may change drastically.

GT: Some ASEAN members are stuck in a rut in that they depend on the US for security and on China for economic development. What can China and ASEAN do to bring ASEAN out of the plight?

Termsak: De-escalate the situation in the South China Sea. Talk and negotiate with the Philippines. Propose win-win initiatives. China can be magnanimous. Make the "Belt and Road" initiative work on the ground to bring real and concrete benefits to peoples in Southeast Asia. Work with ASEAN to realize a good code of conduct in the South China Sea. Avoid causing disunity in ASEAN. Support the unity and the centrality of ASEAN in both words and deeds.

GT: China's relations with some ASEAN countries have been strained due to the South China Sea disputes. What do you think the relevant parties including China should do to restore the bilateral relations and jointly promote regional development?

Termsak: China's understanding, goodwill, and magnanimity are very important to improving its bilateral ties with all countries in ASEAN. I mentioned in my article that we in ASEAN should not join external parties in trying to isolate China. On the other hand, China needs to acknowledge the fact that we in ASEAN are friends of China, not potential enemies of China. We don't have foreign bases; we don't actively prepare for any hot war with China. In fact we are quite eager in taking part in China's "Belt and Road" initiative; and all of us have joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.  

GT: The EU has been regarded by many as a good example for regional economic integration, but the recent Brexit has shaken confidence in it. You said that Brexit won't happen in ASEAN. Yet what can ASEAN learn from Brexit as it is advancing the economic community?

Termsak: What we should learn now is that regional cooperation doesn't always progress in a linear upward direction to a higher level. ASEAN did advance from a loosely organized group into a higher level of regional cooperation in community building with clear goals and specific time frame.

Another lesson which I didn't mention earlier is the resurgence of nationalism, as can be seen in those voting for "Leave" in Brexit referendum. We in ASEAN have been trying to promote a new regional identity of being "ASEAN." We must not overlook the fact that most people, especially the older generations, still treasure their national identity and don't care much about another new layer of regional identity.