Bitcoin market remains risky, especially for speculators

By Liang Fei Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/12 0:18:01

On early Sunday morning, the Bitcoin block mining reward was halved to 12.5 - the second reward halving of the digital currency.

Based on blockchain coding, the number of Bitcoins created from each block will be halved every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, with the total number of Bitcoins eventually being capped at 21 million. The first halving took place in November 2012.

The supply halving is not news to Bitcoin investors, and no big price fluctuations are expected in the following days, industry insiders said, as the market has already absorbed the information.

Bitcoin's price once increased to over $1,200 in November 2013, but has plummeted since then, falling back to $200 by April 2015, indicating that people's enthusiasm toward the digital currency may have worn out.

The digital currency resurrected from relative oblivion in the beginning of this year - its price has surged by over 50 percent since then, boosted by the weakening yuan, the latest halving as well as the promise of the blockchain technology.

No one knows how long will this renaissance last or whether the digital currency will be dumped by investors again.

The uncertainty in Bitcoin's future is especially dangerous for Chinese investors - some 80 percent of global Bitcoin trading occurs in China and the country also accounts for a majority of the mining capacity of the digital currency, a report released on Friday by leading Bitcoin trading platform huobi.com showed.

Over 80 percent of huobi.com's investors indicated that they are eyeing quick money while few claim to believe in the long-term value of Bitcoin, a stance that leaves Bitcoins vulnerable to a speculative and unstable market.

Due to the sluggish and limited mainland stock market, China's hot money has to go somewhere and Bitcoin is one of the options.

But when Chinese investors, keen on short-term gains, find new ways to get rich quickly, a significant interest in Bitcoin may be dumped quickly leading to a possible crash in Bitcoin trading.

One may argue that Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital currency that has been accepted by big names like Microsoft and PayPal as a payment method, has the potential to serve as a widely accepted currency in the future.

But without the endorsement of any central authority, Bitcoins remain unregulated and their value cannot be guaranteed. Bitcoin is also facing competition from copycats on the market, such as the Litecoin.

"Bitcoin is an experiment and like all experiments, it can fail," wrote Mike Hearn, who has been developing software for Bitcoin for five years, in a pessimistic note in January this year.

The US takes a generally relaxed approach toward Bitcoin, but it is not considered currency, instead it is treated as a money services business.

In China, Bitcoin cannot serve as a payment method, but the central bank allows Bitcoin trading, so long as the trading operates within the law.

All that said, the blockchain technology behind it remains promising and it may change the future of the financial sector.

Media reports said in February that the People's Bank of China (PBC), the central bank, among some other central banks, has been studying how the technology could be used in the future.

The PBC held a forum discussing digital currency in January. But Sheng Songsheng, a central bank official, told a separate forum in June that digital currency issued by a central bank is different from private digital currencies like Bitcoin.

They may be based on the same technology, but a central bank's digital currency is backed by central authorities, thus it can be called a real currency, according to Sheng.

But investors would do well to remember that the promising blockchain technology does not equal a Bitcoin guarantee.

They should continue be cautious, because it is never known when the trend will wear out. If it happens again, you definitely do not want to be one of the last batch of people holding the digital currency.



Posted in: Markets

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