Nepal’s democratic shifts make neighborhood relations tricky tightrope

By Xu Liang Source:Global Times Published: 2016/7/28 17:18:00

KP Sharma Oli resigned as Nepal's prime minister on Sunday ahead of a no-confidence vote against him by the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal - Maoist Center (MC) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda, which had just broke from the coalition government with Oli's Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist.

Oli's resignation is a result of democratic systems, especially as this Himalayan nation is still undergoing democratic changes just eight years after it became a federal democratic republic.

Both internal and external factors have contributed to Oli's departure. Last year, the Nepali parliament amended the constitution and the Madhesis, an ethnic minority close to India which constitutes 40 percent of the country's population, demanded to establish their own pradesh (province). The Madhesis, with the support from New Delhi, closed the India-Nepal border in order to disrupt the flow of trade to Kathmandu and impose pressure on the establishment, which came to be known as India's "blockade."

The Nepali parliament decided to work out a plan to meet the demands of Madhesis by March. But it is already late July and no such a plan has been articulated. The failure of Oli to keep his commitment may plunge his country into new political turmoil and ethnic chaos.

In diplomacy, Oli has touched upon the core interests of India, which has long-time influence over Nepal's politics and economy. In 1989, India imposed sanctions on Nepal and forced the king to institute a parliamentary democracy. But under the 2015 blockade, the Oli government successfully established closer ties with China.

He is probably the most important prime minister of Nepal since the 1990s. He turned India's belief that the blockade can make Nepal surrender into thin air. He almost broke his country's full dependence on India, which has  lasted since 1956 when Nepal became a modern state.

Another notable achievement is that Nepal has become a dialogue partner of the China and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which will help it become involved in East Asian affairs. This has made India frustrated as it breaks the tradition that Nepal should only join India-led regional blocs such as the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

The opposition NC that contributed to Oli's departure is a pro-India party. It has been dissatisfied with the Oli government's rapprochement with China.

Prachanda, current leader of the MC, served as first prime minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal (2008-09). During his tenure, his country's relationship with China marched greatly forward. He has arguably been the politician that most tilts toward China up to now. Then why did he retract his support for the Oil government? When he was in power, he took the radical and bold move to ink a cooperation treaty with China, in a bid to push forward bilateral ties. However, he was influenced by the pro-India figure Baburam Bhattarai within the party, and he began to adopt a pragmatic approach by stressing the importance of India to Nepal.

For a long time, Prachanda has played a mediating role within the MC. There were two factions in the party, one led by Baburam Bhattarai and the other led by Mohan Baidya (Kiran) who advocates close ties with Beijing. During his mediation between the two, Prachanda gradually formed the principle of keeping an equal distance from China and India. So once Prachanda takes power, he is bound to rectify Oli's pro-China tendency when in government and take India's interests into account, as India is sour about losing its grip on Nepal.

India is keen to avail itself of every opportunity to impose pressure on Nepal's different political parties, at a time of the country's political chaos and democratic transformation. After all, India has had political and economic clout over Nepal since 1956.

The fixed agreements between China and the Oli government are unlikely to be changed, or it will deal a heavy blow to bilateral ties, which is too much for the new government to bear.

The MC and NC will alternate every nine months to lead the country. In the first nine months, given Prachanda's equidistance principle, there is little chance that China-Nepal ties will retreat, but the relationship will proceed very slowly. After the first nine months, it remains to be seen how the pro-India NC will cope with trilateral relations.

The author is Executive Director at the India Studies Center at Beijing International Studies University. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Posted in: Asian Review

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