Concerns and hopes of Obama's first China visit

• Source: Global Times
• [21:47 November 12 2009]
• Comments

China and the US are in fact the "No. 2" and "No. 1," which is the basis of the introduction of G2 concept. But even if China becomes the second most powerful nation in the world, China and the US still do not have the ability to "jointly dominate the world," not to mention that the two countries have completely different opinions about the world order. Sino-US cooperation does not mean G2.

The mentioning of the close relationship between China and the US and the two countries' cooperation in solving global issues also makes other major powers very sensitive, and even leads to unnecessary misunderstandings. From the diplomatic point of view, it is better not to mention G2.

Nye: I think the idea of G2 is mistaken. The US and China are the No. 1 and No. 3 economies. But we still need the cooperation of Europe and Japan if we are going to stabilize the international economic system and also to deal with difficult issues, like climate change.

When we talk about G2, it implies to the EU and to Japan that they don't matter, but their views do matter. I think we should not talk about G2 ruling the world because in fact the world is much more diverse than that implies.

GT: What does Obama want to achieve on this visit?

Shambaugh: Can Obama's "change" be applied to Sino-US relations? This is only known to Obama. The situation that Obama has to face is that the current Sino-US relations are the best in the past 20 years and that it is the first time that Sino-US relations have become a global relationship.

From Obama's perspective, how can China be shaped into a global partner? I would like to use two "I"s – "Internationalization" and "Institutionalization" to describe it, for example, the internationalization of the social relations between two countries, and the institutionalization of the Sino-US government relations.

The US wants to achieve both of these, however, China has not yet decided to do so, and the US would like it to cooperate more.

Nye: I think the economic crisis has to have priority, because with China and the US being such large parts of the international economy, they have to cooperate if they are going to stave off any type of crisis.

I think close behind that will be discussions on climate change as both of us will be going to Copenhagen in December, and again they are the two largest producers of greenhouse gases.

Wang: Through communication and cooperation with China, Obama wants the US to gain greater interests in global financial stability, economic recovery, climate change and the development of new energy.

The US should coordinate policies with China in the nuclear issues in North Korea and Iran, and the stability issues in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

If these problems cannot be handled properly, it is likely to affect the US domestic political situation and the midterm congressional election in the next year, perhaps even Obama's election campaign three years later.

In other words, Sino-US relations have become increasingly tied with the domestic politics of the US. The diplomacy of any country should serve internal affairs, and the US is not exceptional.

GT: What will the future Sino-US relations become?

Shambaugh: Now many people are saying that China's GDP will surpass that of the US in around 2020 or 2030. I am not sure about this.

China has many domestic problems to solve. What China should do now is not aim to surpass the US, but learn how to be a responsible global power.

For China, it is time not to ask what the world can do for China, but to ask what China can do for the world.

In this, the US is not a teacher, and China is not a student. If Chinese want to play a global role, China should have a certain spirit of adventure. China will be dragged into many issues.

Wang: If we use today's development index to predict things 10 or 20 years later, we often come to wrong answers.

The prediction that the Soviet Union would surpass the US in the 1970s and the prediction that Germany and Japan would surpass the US in the 1980s were later both proved wrong.

In predicting the long-term future, observers should have a rather cautious attitude.

If China cannot guide the transformation of economic growth, the increase of national power will encounter serious resistance. The most important thing is to handle our own affairs well, instead of aiming at surpassing other countries.