China and US on steady path to warmer relations
- Source: Global Times
- [21:55 February 02 2010]
- Comments
Illustration: Liu Rui
By Zhang Jiye
At the end of last year, Sino-US relations encountered setbacks and the Obama administration made frequent attacks on China, from public criticism at the Copenhagen meeting to the tariffs imposed on China's oil and steel. But the biggest issue has been the announcement of a new arms sale package to Taiwan.
Some US and Chinese analysts argue that US policy toward China is changing, and prospects for the relationship are not good.
I do not agree. Despite the challenges to Sino-US relations this year, the general trend of stable development will not be reversed. The Obama administration still needs China's cooperation over many issues, foreign and domestic.
Internally, in order to finance the costly proposed reforms to healthcare and education, Obama needs to issue further bonds. Whether China "pays the bill" and the amount of the payment will not only be related to the success of this financing, but also decide whether the US can continue to maintain low interest rates that will help its economic recovery.
Second, to reduce the domestic double-digit unemployment rate, Obama needs to increase foreign exports.
Whether the US can expand its market share in China by taking advantage of China's economic rise is a crucial question.
China will also play an important part in US attempts to change to a low carbon economy, and to establish a "green hegemony" in the international industrial structure.
Without the Chinese market, new US technologies designed to reduce carbon emissions will lose a big buyer, making it difficult for them to operate on the scale necessary for industrial transformation.
Diplomatically, the Obama administration cannot bypass China while trying to create a stable positive international environment for its domestic reforms, or its attempts to build a world with multipolar partners under US leadership.
This is especially the case given the problems the US faces over the worsening tension in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the nuclear standoff in Iran and North Korea, and the need for reform to the international financial and economic systems.
The China factor is thus crucial for the promotion of Obama's policies. The Obama administration has attempted to further cooperation by transferring part of its power within the international system to China. Obama will need more from China, and so his policies will not shift away from the overall positive trend.
