Lack of social reform endangers China's future
- Source: Global Times
- [21:32 June 01 2010]
- Comments
NFC: So China's sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are inevitable? What causes these problems?
Lu: Social conflicts always exist, but the sharpening social conflicts and differentiation are abnormal. One fundamental reason for these problems is that China's social structure development lags behind its economic structure development.
China has been concentrating so intensely on pursuing rapid economic growth that it distributed resources and opportunities that should have gone to societal development.
China needs to promote social reform. The US, Japan and Latin American countries went through different paths to economic prosperity, depending on whether they underwent social reform and construction at the proper time or not.
China has entered the middle phase of industrialization economically, but its social structure is still at the primary stage of industrialization. The development of China's social structure is about 15 years behind the economy.
NFC: Why does China's social structure development lag so seriously behind?
Lu: The reasons are complicated. First, China is transferring from a planned economy to a mar-ket economy at the same time as it's transferring from an agricultural society to a modern industrialized society. The simultaneous transitions make the change even harder and conflicts can easily occur.
Second, although economic reform has been carried through, in a way social reform hasn't begun. The hukou (registration) system and other regulations based on rural-urban differences originated in the planned economy era and haven't been changed.
All these systems don't fit a market economy at all.
NFC: What will be the results if social reform is postponed for a long time?
Lu: The US, Japan and the Latin American countries can all serve as examples. The US strengthened social construction, promoting social justice and turning fury and anxiety and insecurity into motives for reform.
Japan has realized the importance of social construction, but didn't practice social reform thoroughly. In the end, Japan became an economic power at a high cost. It hasn't solved housing problems for every group, for instance.
Latin American countries have been trapped in a continuous cycle of boom and recession, as they didn't have a clear plan for social construction and didn't undergo a deep and complete social reform.
If China doesn't begin social reforms in time, it might follow the Latin American countries' fate.
Currently, China's social structure changes are driven by market power and state power. There are four possibilities, based on the economic situation and policies.
First, if the economy grows at a fairly good speed, and polices and systems adjust to social reform in time, an ideal modern society with the middle class as its main body will be formed. The cur-rent social problems will disappear.
Second, if policies and political systems cannot be adjusted to economic development in time, the gap among elites, middle class and lower class will be widened, and the middle class will only make up a small part of the population. Thus social instability will increase.
Third, if economy grows slowly but policies and political systems can be adjusted to enhance a reasonable development of social structure, the current social problems will still disappear.
Fourth, if economic development doesn't go smoothly and political systems don't change to fit the changing economy, the upper class and lower class might grow to be the majority of the population. Serious conflicts between the two classes will certainly put society in danger. Current problems will be sharpened and enlarged, until they reach a point where they can no longer be solved.
Up till now China's social structure hasn't become fixed, but the possibility of immobility is growing due to the postponement of social reform. If we let it go on like this, society faces the possibility of fracturing and crisis.
NFC: What is the key point for social reform?
Lu: The central government's determination. Ever since the reform and opening-up, some crucial decisions and reforms have been promoted by the central government forcefully. Social conflicts, social immobility and social fracture all originate from the basic system. Individuals can't break systems and offer solutions.
