Picking out threads of China's future

• Source: Global Times
• [03:12 July 14 2010]
• Comments

Randall Schriver

Editor's Note:

Randall Schriver (Schriver), former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State of the US, launched in 2008 the Project 2049 Institute, a futurist organization that concentrates on China. How does the organization carry out its work? How does it see the Sino-US relationship in 2049? Global Times (GT) reporter Wen Yan talked to Schriver on the issues.

GT: What sources do you usually use for research?

Schriver: Although I still have clearance from the US government, we only use open sources. Our institute is a non-profit institute, so we produce public products. If we didn't use open sources, we would not have published our products publicly. So, all our researches are based on open sources.

GT: Are you more focused on the Chinese military, economics research or other aspects?

Schriver: We would say security, which also involves military and economics. I would say one of our works is in traditional security, which is military. And it is not only China, but because we talk about the Asia-Pacific region, China's development probably is the most important thing happening, which is why we take a special look at it.

Because we are a futurist organization, we chose a mid-point of the century and we said 2049, not 2050, because of the PRC centenary year. We think it is very significant.

GT: Do you cooperate with any Chinese organizations?

Schriver: Nothing formal. I have my own personal connections in China from my former job, and I was invited to talk in the Central Party School at that time. I will soon receive visitors from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, so there are a lot of personal contacts. We don't have a formal counterpart in China as an institute.

GT: Do you think the economic groups of today, such as BRIC, will survive?

Schriver: There may be differences in these groups. When it comes to individual economies, I am not very optimistic about Russia. I am more optimistic about India, Brazil, and obviously China. As for emerging economies, I don't know about South Africa and Turkey, which are very uncertain right now.

As for the "Four Asian Tigers" of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea, I am generally optimistic about their economies.

GT: You have said China will be the largest economic entity in the world. What do you think the US feels about it?

Schriver: Well, I think China may be the world's largest economy by 2049, though it may not be the most developed country. In terms of overall GDP, even if the US is the second, I think our economy may still be the most developed. So, I think even if China exceeds the US in terms of overall GDP, I still believe the US will have a more modern economy, and still have significant influence in the world. Observing something like that is not very alarming to me.

It doesn't matter whether the US feels comfortable with the situation or not. We have to deal in facts. Right now China is the world's second or third biggest economy, but it is also something like 122nd in terms of GDP per capita. So other news and clues are significant.

GT: Why is there such a wide range of opinions about China's future?

Schriver: It is a reflection of the uncertainty associated with China's development and rise. I think everybody acknowledges the importance of China's development and the significance of it. There are many views on how this will emerge. So, we try to look of all these views and try to understand the analysis, and try to develop a better picture for ourselves.

Despite our name and despite what we try to do here, we can't know the future for sure. And, in the case of China and China's evolution and development, there are so many variables, such as the economy, environment, ethnic and labor issues. In mathematics, when we run a regression, we try to find the most influential variable. But it's hard to know what the most important variable in China is. Probably the economy, but there are many other possibilities.

We try to explore the spectrum of possibilities, and give some analysis as to what is most important. But we can't know the future for sure. We do our best to understand things, but there is a lot of uncertainty.