Climate change seen turning deadly by 2100
- Source: Global Times
- [02:07 November 19 2009]
- Comments
By Park Gayoung
Global temperatures will increase by an average of 6 degrees C by the end of the century as CO2 emissions continue to outstrip the ability of the world's natural "sinks" to absorb carbon, a group of scientists said Tuesday in calling for drastic action to combat such emissions.
By studying 50 years of data on carbon emissions, an international team of 30 climate specialists with the Global Carbon Project deduced that the natural sinks soaking up dangerous greenhouse gases are becoming less efficient, absorbing 55 percent of the carbon now, compared with 60 percent half a century ago.
Carbon emissions from fossil fuel rose 2 percent in 2008, year-on-year, to an all-time high of 8.7 billion tons, leaving Earth on a worst-scenario tract for global warming, the report said.
"The only way to control climate change is through a drastic reduction in global CO2 emissions. The global trends we see with CO2 emissions from fossil fuels suggest that we're heading toward 6 Celsius of global warming," said Corinne Le Quéré of the University East Anglia, who led the study with colleagues from the British Antarctic Survey.
According to the "A1F1" scenario by the United Nation's Nobel-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Earth's surface will warm by around 4 degrees C by 2100, compared with 2000, a rise that would likely bring widespread hunger, flooding, drought and home-lessness.
The research comes ahead of next month's UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, and follows an agreement by the world's two largest greenhouse gas producers, the US and China, to team up to fight climate change.
US President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao vowed to set targets next months for easing greenhouse gas emissions.
The December 7-18 UN talks in Copenhagen aim at crafting a pact to combat climate change from 2013.
"Based on our knowledge of recent trends in CO2 emissions and the time it takes to change energy infrastructure around the world … the Copenhagen conference is our last chance to stabilize the climate at 2 Celsius above pre-industrial levels in a smooth and organized way," Le Quéré said, noting that the level of 2 degrees C is required to avoid a dangerous climate change.
"If the agreement is too weak, or if the commitments are not respected, we will be on a path to 5 Celsius or 6 Celsius," she added.
Her team of researchers also warned that the world's natural carbon absorbing "sinks" – the oceans and forests – are failing to keep up with the amount of emissions being pumped into the atmosphere.
