The future of the TPP depends on the US’ willingness to work with other members

By Hu Weijia Source:Global Times Published: 2016/9/14 0:38:39

It seems the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) made progress recently as all 12 participating countries reportedly agreed that they would not renegotiate the deal. But in spite of this decision, there is still great uncertainty over the future of the deal, which has long been considered one of US President Barack Obama's greatest policy accomplishments.

Media reports on Monday said Obama pledged to make an effort to get Congress to endorse the TPP by the end of this year. However, this will not be easy amid increasing concerns that, based on current agreement's text, jobs in the US would be at risk and that the TPP is not in the interest of Americans. If the eleven other members of the TPP choose to stick to the existing text and make no concessions, there is a possibility that the TPP will not take effect due to a possible rejection by the US Congress.

The TPP had not been given too much strategic importance until the US joined the negotiations in 2009. Obama has claimed that the pact would let America, not China, lead the way on global trade. Obviously, the US wants to use the TPP to balance China's rising economic and diplomatic influence in the Asia-Pacific region.

The US may have a price to pay if China's rise is contained. The foundation of the economic union created under the TPP is a US-dominated Asia-Pacific economic circle linking Southeast Asia's labor-intensive processing base with a huge consumer base in the US. Some TPP members such as Vietnam, which has an export-oriented economy, have an urgent need for exploring the consumer market in the US. To an extent, Washington will need to promise to open the country's market and allow American companies to extend their industrial chains into other TPP participating countries if Washington wants to promote negotiations of the TPP.

When the TPP was signed in February, it was expected the US would make some concessions in opening its domestic markets. Many opponents in the US are concerned that job opportunities will flow to other countries like Vietnam after TPP takes effect. Among the most vocal, US presidential candidate Donald Trump has called the deal "a continuing rape of our country."

The future of the TPP depends on not only Washington's political resolve but also on how much the US is willing to work with other TPP members. The TPP has brought new challenges to the US, calling for the country to further open its domestic market and promote globalization. But given that trade protectionism is rising in the US it is not hard to predict a gloomy prospect for the ambitious free trade deal.

The US' reputation in the Asia-Pacific region will be immensely damaged if the TPP fails and the country cannot contain China's rise. China, currently the world's largest trader of goods, is now an influential trade partner with countries in the Asia-Pacific region. China is striving to turn itself into a consumption-oriented economy and an important destination for overseas exporters, which makes it harder for the US to balance China's rising influence in the region.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: Eye on The Economy

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