A child is held up to look out from a porthole on The Aquarius upon its arrival at the Sicilian port of Messina, on May 14, 2018. On May 12, 73 migrants of various nationalities, including women and children, were rescued by The Aquarius, a rescue vessel chartered by SOS-Mediterranee and Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders). Photo: VCG

The impending arrival of an anti-establishment, far-right government in Italy heralds even more controversy over how to deal with the flow of migrants as it raises the specter of mass expulsions.

With a coalition of the anti-system Five Star Movement (M5S) and the nationalist League party poised to take power, the prospects for migrants reaching Italy after a hazardous journey crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya look even dimmer.

The outgoing center-left government has already all but closed the maritime border following controversial accords signed with the Libyan government as well as local authorities, including armed groups, in an effort to curb the migrant influx.

Nearly 700,000 people have landed on Italian shores since 2013.

To stem the tide of human misery, Italy, with EU support, has also trained and equipped the Libyan coastguard so it can intercept vessels before they reach international waters.

Since the start of this year, Italy's interior ministry has tallied 7,100 arrivals via Libya and 3,500 more via Tunisia, Algeria or Greece.

According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the UN agency for migration, the Libyans have themselves intercepted 6,500 people seeking to reach the southernmost tip of Europe.

Now the new, populist government has signaled it will push EU partners to shore up the bloc's external frontiers and accept an automatic and more equitable share-out of migrants across the continent.

It also wants to speed up asylum procedures and repatriate those rejected and those from countries deemed "safe."


Arrivals down 'but suffering not'

To help fund the process, the government will reallocate some budget  - 4.2 billion euros ($4.8 billion) in 2017 used in rescues, providing sanitary assistance and running reception centers.

Arrivals of migrants to Italy slowed by some 80 percent from July 2016 to July 2017 after Marco Minniti, a veteran secret services coordinator who became interior minister in December 2016, reached an accord with Tripoli to keep migrants in detention centers on Libyan soil.

Human rights groups and the UN have blasted most of the centers for their "inhumane" conditions.

The arrivals have fallen also due to a key change in procedure. Previously, the Italian coast guard coordinated rescue operations from Rome, whereas operational authorities now largely reside in Tripoli.

For the migrants, the difference is critical. Coordination by Rome means they are taken to Italy whereas Tripoli taking charge means they again are left at the mercy of a system stalked by violence, extortion and poor conditions.

"The arrivals have gone down but not the suffering," says Carlotta Sami, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Migrants concur.

"I was not afraid of the water, because God created the water. I'm not afraid of death. We all die one day. I'm more afraid if the Libyan police were to catch me again, because they are so wicked," said Vitoria, a 21-year-old Nigerian who arrived in Sicily earlier this month after spending months, she told AFP, in terrible conditions in Libya.

She was taken aboard The Aquarius, a ship chartered by SOS Mediterranee and Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders), after she was first picked up by a smaller boat run by a Spanish NGO following a call from the Italian coastguard.

The crew on the first boat had been told Libya was coordinating the rescue, but the North African country's coastguard did not appear. After a three-day delay, Italy eventually accepted their transfer.

Non-governmental organizations are hamstrung by Tripoli telling vessels to keep their distance - even in cases where the Libyans cannot intervene themselves due to distance or lack of resources.

"This puts us in impossible situations," says Ruben Neugebauer, spokesman for German NGO Sea-Watch.

"If we obey, we are violating the obligation to rescue. If we do not obey, we risk not being able to bring the migrants to Italy or see our vessel seized by Italian authorities."

Recent weeks have also seen the Italians force NGO vessels from rescue zones for days at a time, a tactic which SOS Mediterranee director Frederic Penard says means that "the priority is no longer rescue effectiveness."


'More dangerous than ever'

"Crossings are today more dangerous than ever," says IOM Mediterranean region director Federico Soda. His organization has registered 383 deaths and disappearances off Libya so far this year - 2.8 percent of known departures, up from 2.2 percent in previous years.

Italy's new government hopes to pull another card from its sleeve, one which Minniti has already tried - in vain - to play.

That would see Italy simply refuse to take in migrants picked up by European, military or humanitarian rescue vessels.

The populist MS5 and the hard right League hope to send home the bulk of new arrivals as soon as possible by speeding asylum procedures and systematically kicking out those whose claims are rejected, as well as an estimated 500,000 illegal immigrants.

But at the current rate - just 6,514 official expulsions in 2017 amid opposition from countries of origin to take back their nationals - the process could take more than 75 years, Italian media say.


Newspaper headline: Facing the boot