The Trump administration's second package of aid for US farmers whose products may be targeted with tariffs by China is expected to total around $15 billion, but this is far from enough to save the  soybean industry in the US.

Last year, US President Donald Trump created a $12 billion bailout program for farmers who were hurt by the trade war with China, but the multi-media website Vox said in a report that the bailout "has not been enough to keep farms open." Some US farms faced financing difficulties or even filed for bankruptcy in 2018. Soybean farmers, in particular, have been hit hard by the trade war.

If a $12 billion bailout program failed to make the US soybean industry immune to the trade row, there's no reason to believe that another $15 billion will be enough to make US soybean farmers happy, as another bad harvest is exacerbating their financial problems.

Even if $15 billion is enough, soybean farmers can't be sure whether the government will continue its bailout program in the coming years. If the  trade war with China doesn't end soon, short-term aid will have only a limited impact on calming the market, because it cannot bring long-term benefits to soybean farmers. Besides the short-term bailout, the US has to provide long-term certainty for soybean farmers in a bid to rebuild their confidence before the next harvest.

The final planting date for soybeans in many areas in the US is mid-June, which may exert unprecedented pressure in the coming weeks on the US side amid trade talks with China. Trump said that he was "in no rush" to make a trade deal with China, but maybe the situation has changed because of the soybean planting deadline. China can take advantage of this opportunity.

Of course, the US can sell its soybeans to other countries if it loses the Chinese market, but doing so could easily arouse opposition from other global soybean producers and be regarded as dumping.

China has plenty of chips it can use to bargain with the US. If the Trump administration wants to give the ailing soybean industry time for a breather before the new harvest season, China has various tools to use to hit the sector harder. Amid the next round of trade talks, China can also adjust its soybean import strategy to gain more bargaining chips and cope with US uncertainty.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn