No need to ‘manipulate’ China’s GDP figures

By Shen Weiduo Source:Global Times Published: 2019/11/24 22:08:40

Analysts dispute claims that numbers revised to hit 2020 goal




Photo: CFP


China's revision of its 2018 GDP figures is a routine practice that happens every five years based on a broad and comprehensive national economic census, analysts said, noting that China has no need to and will not manipulate economic data to achieve certain goals.

The comments came after some foreign media claimed that China revised up its GDP figures to hit its target of doubling the size of its economy by 2020 from 2010, which they claimed indicated that China massaged the numbers to achieve goals.

China revised its nominal 2018 GDP up 2.1 percent to 91.93 trillion yuan ($13.08 trillion) during the country's fourth National Economic Census, according to a statement released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.

The adjustment created to a higher base, meaning the country could even achieve its target with a lower growth rate in 2020 ??even below 6 percent, given that China is experiencing downward pressure on its economy, according to some foreign media.

Ye Qing, a professor with Wuhan-based Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, said those claims were "reading too much??into the revision, which he said was a routine move unrelated to any external factors. Further, the 2.1 percent rise was the smallest in recent years.

Although the addition of 1.897 trillion yuan seems big, it's also in a reasonable range compared with previous census years, which further refutes some baseless accusations, Cao Heping, a professor with the School of Economics of Peking University, told the Global Times on Sunday.

The NBS revised the GDP figure up in 2004 by 16.8 percent, 4.4 percent in 2008 and 3.4 percent in 2013. And that interprets to 2.3 trillion yuan, 1.338 trillion yuan and 1.917 trillion yuan, respectively.

Moreover, the revision, which was made based on the national economic census, is a practice that's widely adopted by other countries, experts said.

Aside from the traditional calculation scope which mainly focuses on the industrial sector, the national economic census also targets some emerging sectors that belong to the tertiary industry, which were difficult to calculate or not included in the previous figures, Cao said.

According to the NBS data, the major part of the increase in the 2018 figure came from the tertiary industry, which surged from 46.96 trillion yuan to 48.97 trillion yuan.

Cao also argued that there is no need for China to play statistical tricks to achieve any goal, as "China always sets a target lower than what it could achieve.??o:p>

An ongoing trade war and low demand amid slower global economic growth are still casting shadows on China's economy, but both experts held an upbeat outlook toward the country's GDP performance next year.

"It's not likely that China will have a growth rate of less than 6 percent next year, as China has already withstood the most difficult year, with both the influence of China-US trade war and the industrial upgrading and transition period it has been going through," Ye said.

Strong, solid domestic demand will be an engine of China's GDP growth, Cao said, and the figure would revert to "normal" in the next two to three years.

In the third quarter of this year, China's GDP rose 6.0 percent, compared with 6.2 percent in the second quarter. The number, though touching a 27-year low, was still within the annual target range set by policymakers.

Posted in: INDUSTRIES,ECONOMY,CHINA-US FOCUS

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