China can achieve 2019 GDP growth goal: analyst

By Wang Bozun Source:Global Times Published: 2019/11/27 16:38:40

China's GDP target for 2019 Photo: GT

China is absolutely able to accomplish its start-of-year goal of keeping the GDP growth rate inside a reasonable range, between 6.0 to 6.5 percent, a former government official said on Wednesday.

According to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the average GDP growth rate in the first three quarters was 6.2 percent, as growth in the first quarter was 6.4 percent, 6.2 percent in the second quarter and 6.0 percent in the third quarter.

"Considering the GDP performance in the first three quarters, China is absolutely able to achieve its goal of keeping its growth rate between 6.0 and 6.5 percent by the end of the year," Yao Jingyuan, former chief economist of the NBS, said during a seminar in Beijing on Wednesday.

Amid the global economic recession, China's GDP growth rate has fallen to a three-decade low, which has caused speculation over whether or not China will be able to maintain healthy and stable GDP growth. 

Yao said, "We have to admit that as the growth rate went from 6.4 percent in the first quarter to 6.0 percent in the third quarter, Chinese economic growth is experiencing a slowdown, which requires the government to release more measures to stabilize the rate."

However, Yao also pointed out that, after forty years of development, the focus of China's economic development has shifted from speed to quality. "Even if [GDP growth] falls below 6.0 percent, which is possible, it is OK as long as the growth rate, employment rate and CPI are stable," he said. While weighing the slowdown, China's achievement in high-quality development should also be considered.

"China has been transforming its industrial structure and growth points, and has achieved its targets in these areas for this year. For example, the services and consumption sector has contributed more than 60 percent to GDP growth. This is a result of China's efforts to pursue high-quality development," Yao said.

China's industrial companies above a designated scale recorded profits of 5 trillion yuan ($713 billion) from January to October, down 2.9 percent year-on-year and up 0.8 percentage points compared with the figure from January to September, according to a statement released by the NBS.

The slowdown in industrial profit is due to the slowdown in development and a drop in the producer price index (PPI), but it is important to note that it is just a slowdown in the pace of growth, Yao said.

"It is slowing down not decreasing. Total profit is still higher than 5 trillion yuan," Yao told the Global Times, adding that the profit slowdown is also partially due to the ongoing process of supply-side reform.

Yao noted that, despite its year-on-year decrease, the PPI has seen a continuous 0.1 percent month-on-month increase since September, which shows that positive growth - though low - has become a trend. 



Posted in: ECONOMY

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