US stocks likely to bear brunt if Trump makes tariff errors

Source:Global Times Published: 2019/12/12 21:35:32

US President Donald Trump is expected to meet with top trade advisers on Thursday to discuss tariffs on Chinese products scheduled to take effect on December 15, Reuters reported. If Trump and his trade advisers make a wrong decision about the tariffs, they will be responsible for a possible slump in US share prices.

Breaking news on the China-US trade war has been an important factor fanning US stock market volatility in the past few months. We believe the White House noticed the stock market decline around December 3 after Trump signaled that he could wait until after the 2020 presidential election to strike a trade deal with China. If the tariffs scheduled for December 15 are implemented, many expect that US shares will be hit harder than on December 3.

US investors may have sought to guess how China will respond if the US  decides not to scrap the planned tariffs. Information disclosed by the Chinese authorities in recent months is enough to answer the question. China announced in August that it would impose new tariffs of 5 percent and 10 percent on more than 3,300 types of US goods on December 15, in response to the US tariffs planned for the same day.

China has published the list of the 3,300-plus types of US goods, which include ginseng, roasted coffee, vehicle parts and some manufacturing equipment. US investors can read through that list to check whether the companies they have invested in produce goods on the list.

US tariffs planned for December 15 are expected to harm Chinese companies' interests, which will force China to take countermeasures. We believe Trump and his team know China is unlikely to remain silent if the December 15 tariffs are implemented. Such a tit-for-tat trade war scenario has played out several times. We don't think we need to tell the US more about how China will respond to new tariffs. Washington should have enough information to make the right decision.

We believe that Trump and his trade advisers in the US have a clear understanding of the consequences of tariff hikes. If they still decide to go ahead with the next round of tariffs planned for December 15, they need to be responsible for those consequences. US stock markets may be the first to feel the impact of the possible tariff hikes. We advise Trump and his US trade advisers to think carefully and scrap tariffs scheduled for December 15.

If both sides can meet each other halfway, it will provide certainty for the US economy and stock market in 2020, which is exactly what is needed the most at this moment.  

Posted in: GT VOICE

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