Illustration: Luo Xuan/GT

China's agricultural imports have triggered heated discussion online in recent days. Investors are struggling to determine the scale of agricultural imports, especially from the US, that China can digest in the next year. 

Agricultural purchases by China have always followed market-oriented principles. The nation's imports of agricultural products totaled $137.1 billion in 2018, up $12.5 billion from a year earlier. China's agricultural purchases in 2018 accounted for one-tenth of global farm trade. 

With a population of about 1.4 billion, China is now the world's largest importer of agricultural products. As China continues to open up its market to the outside world, the nation's imports of agricultural goods will further expand. The country's agricultural purchases are very likely to post substantial growth in 2020.

American farmers will become one of the largest beneficiaries of China's farm product import growth in the next year if the two countries sign a phase one trade deal. China imported an average of $24.2 billion in US farm products each year from 2015 to 2017. However, these imports fell to $16.2 billion in 2018 when bilateral trade was hit by the trade war. 

China's agricultural purchases from the US have potential to recover from such short-term fluctuations if the phase one trade deal can be signed. 

More importantly, the deal is expected to solve some of the outstanding problems in China-US agricultural trade. Currently, many are focused on whether or not China and the US have agreed on the specific amount of agricultural purchases, but the number itself is not as important as they think. After the implementation of the deal, China can raise imports of US agricultural products. It's a sure thing because increased imports can fill the gap between supply and demand in China's agricultural market. 

What is worth particular attention is how the deal will solve procedural problems and promote the long-term growth of China-US agricultural trade.

China is making a fundamental transformation from being the world's factory to an important global consumer. Increased farm imports may exert an effect on the world economy and global value chain. But China's farm product imports will always follow market-oriented principles. We believe this is also what US agricultural product exporters want to see.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn
Newspaper headline: Farm product imports will follow market principles