Asian economy likely to face zero growth in 2020; China may lead regional post-pandemic recovery: report

Source:Global Times Published: 2020/5/8 16:33:41

Boao Forum for Asia Photo: Xinhua

 
Some Asian economies are likely to face greater downward pressure in 2020, and the Asian economy as a whole is expected to experience zero growth, a report from the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) showed. Analysts and officials noted China will likely drive the economic recovery in the Asia-Pacific region once COVID-19 comes under control.

China has cancelled the 2020 Boao Forum for Asia due to the pandemic. The annual conference was initially scheduled to be held from March 24-27.

The report, Asian Economic Outlook and Integration Progress Annual Report 2020, was released during an online forum on Friday. 

Since the beginning of 2020, challenges faced by the Asian economy have become "all the more serious." The Asian economy is likely to continue on a low-speed track for years to come, which means some Asian economies are likely to face greater downward pressure in 2020, and the Asian economy as a whole is expected to experience zero growth, according to the report.

It noted that in the best-case scenario, if the pandemic is mitigated in the second half of the year, Asia's growth rate could be positive. But if there is a second outbreak or stimulus policies are ineffective, there is still a possibility that Asia's growth rate will fall below zero.

However, despite huge challenges, analysts and officials stressed China's role in lifting the region and even the world out of an economic recession through its strong anti-pandemic efforts, a slew of stimulus policies and its booming digital economy.

Businesses remain confident in China's economic recovery as well as the role China will play as an engine to drive economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region and globally after the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Deloitte research which was also presented on Friday.

When the black swan pandemic arrived at the end of January, it dealt a heavy blow to China's economic growth. However, it also prompted China to reflect on potential problems in its economic development and will bring about deeper restructuring and reform impetus, creating more opportunities for growth, the BFA report said.

Although the pandemic has negatively impacted economic growth in the first half of 2020, the development of consumer and digital technologies as well as economic restructuring will help China's economy recover. That will in turn drive a global economic recovery, creating more room and opportunities for development, said the report.

China's exports rebounded in April, rising by an unexpected 8.2 percent year-on-year following a 3.5 percent decline in March and a 15.8 percent plunge in the first two months of the year, according to data released by Chinese customs on Thursday.

Global Times 



Posted in: ECONOMY

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