Photo taken on March 25, 2020 shows the dock in Dalian, northeast China's Liaoning Province. As the coronavirus pandemic has been subdued in China, Dalian port saw an increasing container throughput in the past two weeks. (Xinhua/Yao Jianfeng)
China is estimated to have ridden a brisk rebound, especially in imports amid the country's economic reboot that has come at a faster-than-expected pace, market watchers said ahead of the June trade data announcement on Tuesday.
A notable improvement in imports are expected to be seen in June's numbers while estimates are split over potential improvement in exports.
Bai Ming, a researcher of Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation told the Global Times that inelastic demand for China's products is bound to lift the trade volume in the second half of this year, and positive signs might start to show in June's trade figures.
"Over the second half of the year, trade will start to normalize with or without the coronavirus," Bai said. "As overseas demand picks up and supply chains recover somewhat, trade will also start to recover between China and some of its biggest trade partners, including Europe and the US."
In a note sent to the Global Times, Goldman Sachs economists put export growth at 2 percent for June and it estimated imports contracted by 10 percent last month.
The nation's exports denominated in US dollars shrank 3.3 percent in May from the year before, while its dollar-denominated imports fell 16.7 percent year-on-year during the month, Chinese customs data showed.
The implied trade surplus would be $70.2 billion in June, widening from the previous month's trade surplus of $62.9 billion, Goldman Sachs economists calculated.
In anticipation of a continued growth recovery, UBS economists led by Wang Tao wrote in a research report sent to the Global Times that exports are still expected to stay in modest contraction of 4 percent in June, while imports would fall by 10 percent.
Xu Hongcai, an economist at the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges told the Global Times that uncertainties in the oversea market still persist, and might drag down China's trade further than many people expect.
"The problem of the economic recovery is that the supply chain has been severely disrupted by the coronavirus crisis," Xu said.
The outlook is "good for China's foreign trade, especially exports which will pick up in the second half of this year," Xu said. "But with the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 still rising worldwide as we speak, it really still boils down to how and when the coronavirus can be effectively contained around the world so that the supply chain can recover," he said.