Will China’s rosy Q3 data boost global economy?

Source: Global Times Published: 2020/10/15 20:41:36

Residents enjoy street food at stalls at a plaza in Beijing. Photo: VCG

Given the complex and changeable macroeconomic environment and rising uncertainties in the world, faced by China's economy amid the coronavirus pandemic, many are looking forward to seeking clues from China's economic data for the third quarter, which will be released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday, to help gauge the actual economic situation.

With only one quarter left in 2020 after the release of the third-quarter data, China's full-year economic picture will become clearer. While it seems certain that China remained on track for economic recovery in the third quarter following a sharp downturn in the first and a V-shaped rebound in the second, the real question ahead of the release of the economic indicators is whether China's economic recovery is strong enough to inject renewed confidence and hope into the global economy. 

Currently, expectations toward the third-quarter economic performance are generally very optimistic. 

Most of the financial institutions, investment banks in particular, which have made forecasts for the upcoming GDP data, predicted the Chinese economy have grown by more than 5 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. 

This is because China's strict and effective epidemic prevention and control measures injected confidence in its economic recovery and development potential.

Even if there are risks of COVID-19 resurgence in upcoming winter, the confidence based on China's anti-epidemic performance won't change, neither will the fundamentals of the world's second largest economy and its long-term upbeat trend.

From the global perspective, if China's third-quarter economic results prove its reliable recovery strength, it would be good news for the world economy that is still being struggling in the spreading epidemic. 

With the US facing a prolonged recession and other Western developed economies still struggling for solutions, China has become a "bright spot" that no one could ignore, which is also expected to help revive the global economy. 

As the Chinese economy has shown its resilience and great development potential amid the fight against COVID-19, the economic ties between the world and China will inevitably deepen despite all the geopolitical headwinds.

During the Great Depression, Keynesian economics came on stage to better understand and address the economic difficulties at that time. Now that the coronavirus epidemic has brought unprecedented global lockdown, there is increasing calls for major adjustments to economic theories and policies to cope with the fallout of the health crisis. 

Under such circumstances, governments need to work together to reboot their economies in the post-epidemic era, and China is also to take on more responsibility for sharing the economic dividends of its anti-epidemic success with its neighboring countries.

In this sense, it is essential for various parties to pay attention to the economic data to be released on Monday, because economic indicators, which can reflect the overall performance of the Chinese economy, will tell the extent and speed of China's economic recovery, development highlights and future potential. Only with detailed analysis into such statistics can countries better tap into China's domestic market to regain momentum for their own economic recovery.

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