Cyprus immune now but has to change growth model: German economist

Source:Xinhua Published: 2013-3-26 8:43:41

Cyprus is immune now after a new deal is clinched but it has to change its growth model, a German economist said on Monday.

"Cyprus is staying within the euro zone... Cyprus is staying immune now," Heiko Peters, an economist at Deutsche Bank, told Xinhua in an interview.

Eurozone finance ministers early Monday approved a new bailout plan for Cyprus, which would wind down the country's second largest bank and levy a tax on bank deposits over 100,000 euros. The deal is crucial for Cyrpus to raise 5.8 billion euros (7.48 billion US dollars) in order to secure a 10-billion bailout from international lenders.

It was a last-minute deal between the Troika and Cyrpus, Peters commented. "They changed the deal and now Cyprus is getting the money by restructuring the banking sector."

Earlier, the parliament of Cyprus vetoed a proposal to levy bank deposit tax, which would impose a 6.75- to 9.9-percent loss to all savers. The ECB decided to cut off the emergency liquidity assistance unless a new deal could be reached till Monday.

"Cyprus can stay immune but they have to change their business model," Peters said. In the past, the growth of Cyprus came mainly from the banking sector and it has to shift to others like the tourism sector in the future, according to Peters.

Peters identified relatively high yields and low tax rates as two main factors that led to an oversized banking sector in Cyprus. One gets an interest rate of about 5 percent for deposits on average in Cyprus during the last five years, while in Germany it was around 2.5 percent, he said.

Peters saw a moderate risk of contagion from the Cyprus bailout "because its economy is relatively small", and the country has put in place capital control.

With regard to the prospect of the economic growth in the euro area, Peters expects a weak growth in the first half of this year. "We will see an improvement of the situation in the second half year," he said.

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