Short of a miraculous comeback, China's star speed skater Wang Meng will not compete in the Sochi Winter Olympic Games.
Wang fractured both bones in her ankle after colliding with a male teammate in training last week and then had her bones pinned during surgery in a Shanghai hospital.
While describing the operation as very successful, her doctor also admitted recovery is typically six weeks of healing, plus additional rehabilitation. Even if Wang does somehow make it to the starting line on February 10, you have to assume she would be nowhere near her best.
To describe this as a damaging blow to China's Olympic hopes would be an understatement. Wang is China's most-decorated Winter Olympian, having won a medal of each color at the 2006 Winter Games and then three gold medals in Vancouver four years ago. After a dominant season, she was as close to a sure thing as you can find in the world of speed skating.
But, as is so often the case in sports, an injury to one creates an opportunity for another - or in this case two opportunities.
First, and most obviously, the 500-meter race has been thrown wide-open by Wang's absence. Of the Chinese squad, 20-year-old Fan Kexin is the most likely to step up. The 500-meter specialist finished second behind Wang in this season's overall World Cup standings in the distance and was the 2012 world champion.
Other athletes, notably a South Korean pair, will also be eyeing the gold with Wang out of the way, but Fan should at least win a medal.
Second, the Chinese team now needs a new leader. Wang has a long history of controversy off the ice - alcohol has appeared to be a catalyst on more than one occasion - but having won six Olympic medals, she has led by example on it.
Xu Mengtao and Qi Guangpu, two of China's growing army of aerial freestyle skiers - effectively gymnasts on skis - each have a chance to win their events and, at 23, are young enough to dominate for years to come.
Meanwhile, figure skating pair Pang Qing and Tong Jian will hope to go one better than the silver medal they won in Vancouver, emulating teammates Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo who pipped them for gold.
But with Wang gone, someone now needs to spearhead China's medal charge - and it will be fascinating to see who accepts the challenge.
The author is a Beijing-based freelance writer.
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