Beijing should be active but not interventionist in Middle East

Source:Global Times Published: 2014-7-1 19:08:01

Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

On China's role in the Middle East, I'm frequently asked one question: What contribution could China make in terms of helping the region? Some ask it politely, some rudely. But there seems to be a common assumption that China is emerging as a free rider in the Middle East, and that it should commit to greater responsibilities as a big power.

My understanding is that China is as yet in no way a great power according to the old dimensions. It is at best a regional power with certain global influence, or as some put it, a partial power.

It is unrealistic to expect China to play a role in the Middle East like the US or European countries. China does not have that capacity. For instance, nowadays many non-state factors from the US and Europe are involved in Middle East dynamics, but in China NGOs are still underdeveloped.

It is important for China to evaluate what it can do and what it cannot do in the Middle East, based on realistic perspectives. As China's interest is increasing in the Middle East, it is certain that China cannot be a bystander, and it has to consider how to adjust its foreign policy due to the new dynamics in this region.

The basic judgments that I have on the Middle East situation is as follows: The US will remain the most important external player in the region in the foreseeable future.

Washington has high stakes in the Middle East, and it will certainly not retreat from this area. Therefore the question is how it is going to stay with minimum costs.

China and the US share a lot of overlapping interests in this region. They are the two largest energy importers from the Middle East, and they both face terrorist challenges. But they have different views over how to promote peace and stability in this region. In addition, East Asia will remain the first priority of Beijing's foreign policy, and the Middle East will remain less important.

Based on all these judgments, I would say that there are at least two things China should not do. First, it should not follow the UK, the US, or Soviet approach in the Middle East, which means to build military bases or set up political alliances. That's beyond China's capacity and is not in China's interest.

China should also avoid becoming over-involved in the Middle East. Washington's over-involvement has become one of the problems in this region, rather than one of the solutions.

Then what can China do in the Middle East? In the past couple of years, some Chinese scholars have proposed the new geopolitical strategy "go west." There are basically two schools of thought on this new strategy. One holds that the Middle East could be a new frontier for China to check and balance the US. The other believes while the US and China are witnessing conflicting interests in East Asia, the Middle East can become a new cooperation platform for the two to improve relations.

I agree with neither of these two schools of thought. China's influence in the Middle East is limited, and it does not have the resources to operate on the same level as the US does. Even if China seeks to check and balance the US, the Middle East is definitely not the best field. It is like using China's weakest point to confront US strong point. China should instead do more in East Asia.

China has been seeking balance among the big players in this region, and it has been doing well so far. In the past five years, the power distribution has changed a lot in the Middle East. Iran has risen while Arab countries have declined. Iraq, Syria, and Egypt are sinking, and in the next five to 10 years, the three will not be big regional players. It is likely that the US-Iran relationship will improve. China should consider foreign policy adjustment along with these changing dynamics.

Generally speaking, China should focus on its economic advantages in the Middle East. For instance, if the international community comes up with an agreement to provide help to Syria, or for the reconciliation between Palestine and Israel, what China can do involves things like building tents for refugees in Syria, or helping Palestine improve infrastructure. That's what China is good at.

China's image in the Middle East should remain as an elephant, which is big but basically defensive, in sharp contrast with the "lion" image of the US.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Chen Chenchen based on a speech by Niu Xinchun in a recent conference in Turin of Italy. Niu is research professor and director of the Institute of West Asian and African Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. chenchenchen@globaltimes.com.cn

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