Abe likely to retain grip on power given weak and feeble opposition

By Huang Wenwei Source:Global Times Published: 2014-11-23 18:48:02

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced the dissolution of the country's lower house on Tuesday and called an early parliamentary election in a bid to get public approval for another unpopular sales tax hike.

Abe came to power in 2012 with an ambitious plan to revive the Japanese economy, but his Abenomics plan has turned out not to be as successful as expected. Latest figures indicate that the country has technically fallen into economic recession. There have been widespread complaints among the public about the government's economic measures.

However, despite the decline in his popularity, Abe is still expected to win the election on December 14. While in other democracies the ruling party is monitored by the opposition, in Japan the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) appears to be almost autocratic after Abe took the helm. The opposition parties are in disarray and lack the clout to confront the LDP; their popularity even seems to be withering.

Right now there are around 10 opposition parties in Japan, but their presence is feeble. Before the recent dissolution, of the 475 seats in the lower house 295 were held by the LDP and 31 by its ruling coalition partner Komeito, in all more than half of the total. The biggest opposition group, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), occupied only 60 seats and was followed by the 42 seats of the Japan Innovation Party.

A notable disparity can also be found in the upper house. Of its 242 seats, 114 are taken up by the LDP and 20 by Komeito, with 59 by the DPJ, 11 by the Japan Innovation Party and 11 by the Japanese Communist Party. In Japanese politics, the LDP's leading role is unshakable. Since 1955, it governed the country alone for 38 years until 1993 when it lost a majority in the lower house. In the following 16 years it remained dominant in coalition with other parties, but it became the opposition for the first time in 2009 when the DPJ won the election.

But the long-awaited power shift didn't bring any excitement to the public. With a shortage of political talent, the DPJ was not well prepared to govern the country and deal with natural disasters like the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Frequent changes in prime ministers during the three years of the DPJ's time in power disappointed the public and they felt that it might not be a bad thing to have the LDP back in office.

It's not unusual to see the opposition constantly establishing and dissolving parties. They do everything just to win votes instead of presenting the clear-cut notion of serving the people; no wonder they are wilting.

After the LDP retook power, the DPJ was largely divided and some members even sought to join the LDP. Parties out of office have been seeking to reorganize their strength. Former Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara established the Sunrise Party after quitting the governor job in November 2012, yet days later merged the party with the Japan Restoration Party.
In September, head of the Japan Restoration Party, Toru Hashimoto, and Kenji Eda of the Unity Party merged the two parties into the Japan Innovation Party.

In this context, the LDP has seized a tight grip on power and Abe has been unprecedentedly harsh in promoting his conservative policies since he returned to office. He intensified control of media outlets so that the public's demonstrations around the Diet against the restarting of the nuclear plants, the revision of the pacifist constitution and the special secrecy law are rarely covered.

In early November, two government-backed bills that were designed to revitalize local economies were approved by the lower house, while countermeasure bills of four opposition parties were denied.

The divided and politically varied opposition parties lack the power to meaningfully stand against Abe, even with his popularity dipping. Abe has said that he will resign if the ruling bloc of the LDP and Komeito, which holds a majority in the lower house, fails to win the upcoming election. Given the weak opposition, the prime minister, who is expected to win, is increasingly complacent.

The author is a columnist based in Tokyo. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn



Posted in: Asian Beat, Viewpoint

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