SOURCE / ECONOMY
Trump poses risk to trade, may make charges of currency manipulation: experts
Published: Nov 15, 2016 11:38 PM

Senior experts from an Australia-based bank warned on Tuesday that US President-elect Donald Trump poses a downside risk to the outlook for trade between China and the US, as China's economy remains stable.

The policy after Trump takes office could be quite different, and it is too early to know if his election rhetoric will translate into policy, but the risk of volatile markets is much higher, Alan Oster, group chief economist of National Australia Bank (NAB), said in a media briefing in Beijing.

In 2017, the biggest issues between China and US will be trade policy and political relations, Oster said.

It is possible for Trump to make currency manipulation charges against China, and the Chinese currency could react.

However, the proposal during the campaign to impose a 45 percent tariff on all Chinese imports into the US would have a significant impact on China's foreign trade, but it would also negatively impact the US.

"It could start a trade war." Oster warned, adding that bilateral trade could be decreased by 50 percent.

As for the Chinese economy, it will remain stable. But political factors could weigh heavily, because in 2017 China will hold the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the market will take a close look at President Xi Jinping's political moves, said Christy Tan, head of markets strategy and research department in Asia of NAB.

The country is set to achieve its annual GDP goal in 2016, an official with the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday.