SOURCE / ECONOMY
Rapid spread of coronavirus outside China weakens its Q2 economy V-shaped rebound: economists
Published: Mar 16, 2020 12:32 PM

Staff members work at a factory of a company in Luocheng Mulao Autonomous County, south China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, March 5, 2020. Under strict measures taken to fight against the novel coronavirus, the company has resumed production to help workers in the impoverished county to get rid of poverty. (Xinhua/Yang Chi)



China's economy is expected to improve in March alongside the country's gradual resumption of economic activities, but the fast spread of the new coronavirus outside China has weakened the trend, economists said on Monday.

Economic shock of Covid-19 will be transitory, one-off, with improvement expected in Mar as economic activity resumes, but virus spread outside China weakens expectations for a V-shaped rebound in the Chinese economy in the second quarter, Bank of Communications senior economist Tang Jianwei told the Global Times on Monday.

The comments came as the country's retail sales, industrial output and investment posted double-digit slumps in the first two months of the year amid measures to fight the virus.

Wang Jun, chief economist at Zhongyuan Bank Co, said he was shocked by the double-digit slump though it had been widely anticipated that the figures would drop due to nationwide social and economic suspension.

Looking ahead, macroeconomic data in March will very likely outperform the previous month but is far from achieving pre-virus normalcy, Wang told the Global Times on Monday.

"As the coronavirus is spreading rapidly overseas, the slowing global economy will deal a second blow to China and the country's economy may still be on a gradual recovery trajectory in the second half of 2020," he said.

Wang said China's economic growth will be able to reach 4-5 percent if manufacturers accelerate production after the end of the epidemic and domestic consumption is greatly spurred.

Mao Shengyong, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press briefing on Monday that China will scale up macroeconomic policies to cushion shocks brought by COVID-19 and external challenges. 

"China's economy in the second half of 2020 will navigate in a sound and robust manner," he said.

According to Mao, China will appropriately raise the country's fiscal deficit ratio. Economists told the Global Times in previous interviews that the ratio will likely be elevated to 3-3.5 percent in 2020.