COMMENTS / COLUMNISTS
Larger stimulus spending to guard against ‘rainy days’
Published: Mar 29, 2020 08:48 PM

Illustration: Luo Xuan/GT

To shield China's economy from the assault of the novel coronavirus, which is spreading voraciously across the globe, this country needs to mete out a proportionately larger stimulus package - targeted at revitalizing domestic spending power while pivoting to fire up more investment on future technologies. 

As the monster virus forced normal economic activities to a resounding halt, its impact on a flurry of the world's major economies is decimating. For a populous country like China, which was first pummeled by the deadly virus and is now trying its best to guard against a second-round hit from surging imported cases, the decision-makers in Beijing could be more courageous while making economic rescue plans. 

It is unrealistic to cast a too rosy picture of China's economic revival, as the virus' hit on the economy is so broad and deep. Some government economists have forecasted China's economy would grow by 6 percent this year - which looks increasingly like a flying balloon with its tether cut off. Taking into account of all the drought data for the first three months, it should be a great feat to achieve 4.5 percent GDP growth in 2020.  

With other countries from Europe, Asia, Oceania and the Americas sheltering in place and entering quarantines one after another, these economies are slipping into doldrums, if not months-long contractions, or even worse, years-long depressions. 

Because this country's business activity is inextricably intertwined with the global community, China's economy is facing a distressful dilemma, caused by an evaporating export market and severely disrupted global supply chains, as other countries hunker down.

To cope with the formidable challenge, China needs a more adventurous stimulus plan by reaching deeper into the public purse to inspire waves of spending by governments at all levels. 

The country's previously set limit of 3 percent yearly budget deficit spending (proportionate to the country's GDP), which was legislated by the National People's Congress (NPC), could be revised to 4 percent for 2020 - so that approximately an extra one trillion yuan could be used for fiscal stimulus. 

The funds could be rushed to hundreds of thousands of small-sized businesses in the country that employ less than 200 workers each, so that the firms could survive the sudden attack of the coronavirus and not have to lay off their workers on a massive scale. The US' predicament of more than 3.2 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits last week must be avoided. 

At a time of such difficulty, it is imperative for the government to throw them a lifeline and stem a tsunami of business failures, which will deal a heavy blow to the fundamentals of the economy. Compared with the mighty state-owned conglomerates or private behemoths like Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent or Meituan Dianping, China's small and medium-sized enterprises need a prompt bailout package.The sooner, the better. 

And, there is another side of the ledger which is to ramp up domestic spending by whatever means. 

The governments of the central, provincial and city levels need to work together to co-finance a nationwide voucher program, and dole out to the country's vast middle-class and impoverished households, so that these people will be able to shop more, dine more, and travel more to help stimulate the giant economy. 

Lately, some powerhouse provinces including Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong have ventured to loosen stringent restrictions on house sales and car ownership, which are significant moves to rejuvenate domestic spending. 

Only after the government sees it draconian measures to control the coronavirus pay off and the economy to hum again, could the central authorities retrieve some of the charcoal from the furnace. 

And, the decision-makers must be on alert to detect any reverberating financial and fiscal side effects to be caused by the pandemic, which may prop up and harm the economy. As always, preparations for hard times or rainy days need to be made by Beijing. 

The author is an editor with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn