WORLD / EUROPE
Russia, Ukraine poised for direct talks, ‘good start for more effective dialogue but breakthrough unlikely in single meeting’
Published: May 14, 2025 11:41 PM
Photo taken on March 7, 2022 shows a view of the third round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the Belovezhskaya Pushcha.Photo:Xinhua

Photo taken on March 7, 2022 shows a view of the third round of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the Belovezhskaya Pushcha.Photo:Xinhua



Russia and Ukraine are poised to sit down possibly on Thursday in Turkey's Istanbul for their first high-level face-to-face talks since 2022, according to the Washington Post.

Responding to a question related to the direct talks, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Wednesday that China has been committed to promoting talks for peace since day one of the conflict, supported resolving the crisis through dialogue and negotiation, and stressed the need for parties to create conditions for the resumption of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine. That has always been China's position. 
 
China and Brazil agreed on Tuesday to enhance communication and coordination on the Ukraine crisis and support Russia and Ukraine in initiating direct dialogue, the Xinhua News Agency reported. 

China and Brazil, as a peace-loving progressive force, should work with countries in the Global South to continue to play a constructive role in resolving the crisis, the two sides agreed. 
 
The proposed direct meeting, if held, will be positive in terms of providing an opportunity for more effective communication despite differences, but Chinese observers are cautious of breakthrough results as the divergence is too big to bridge in a single meeting. 

Putin suggested direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev on May 15 in response to a ceasefire-or-sanction ultimatum from European leaders. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, took the Russian offer for direct talks at face value and then elevated it to the presidential level, the Washington Post reported.
 
When asked to comment on Vladimir Zelensky's statements about his desire to meet with the Russian leader, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said "We only evaluate statements made by President Putin who suggested that the two countries' delegations hold talks in Istanbul on Thursday. Our delegation will be there, and it will be waiting for the Ukrainian side," Tass reported on Tuesday. 

Peskov added that members of the Russian delegation would be named once the president handed down the relevant instructions.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will attend the talks in Istanbul, US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday during his visit to Saudi Arabia, and he is expecting "pretty good results," according to CNN. 

Cui Heng, a scholar from the Shanghai-based China National Institute for SCO International Exchange and Judicial Cooperation, noted the meeting's significance as their first direct talks since 2022, but he said "Ukraine's demand of an unconditional ceasefire is far from Russia's demands in several aspects."

Sun Xiuwen, an associate professor at the Institute for Central Asian Studies at Lanzhou University, told the Global Times on Wednesday that the meeting might be more of stating and communicating stances. 

"Russian demands of a neutral and demilitarized Ukraine, NATO aid to Ukraine and Western sanctions of Russia, territorial sovereignty of Crimea and Russian-controlled areas since the conflict… those are some of the structural contradictions that will be difficult to resolve," Sun said, adding that an easier topic to make progress, if any, would be the possibility and plans to realize a ceasefire. 

"Mutual trust between the two sides had collapsed and the meeting could be time for them to test each other's bottom lines and win support from the international community, rather than a decisive inflection point," Sun said. 

Trump's senior envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg will travel to Istanbul for potential talks on Thursday, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing three undisclosed sources. 
 
On one hand, the US can leverage its power to push for a compromise between the two sides, on the other hand, the complex dynamics of US-Europe and US-Russia relations add uncertainty to the negotiation process, Sun said.
 
However, direct communication between Russia and Ukraine can be a positive start. "China and Brazil's support for direct talks represent a different and more effective approach from the West's 'ceasefire-and-talk' or 'pressuring with sanctions' and they deliver a common call for peace through negotiation among the Global South," Sun said. 

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is visiting China, said at a press conference on Wednesday in Beijing that he was optimistic that the conflict could be resolved through political and peaceful means.