A view of CBD in Beijing, China. Photo: VCG

Editor's Note:

Should the world fear China? This is a question that seems to linger in the minds of some Western politicians and one that the media love to toss into the spotlight from time to time. Zhou Bo (Zhou), a senior fellow of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, makes this question the title of his new book, and answers it through a collection of his essays, while also unpacking China's own view of its role today. In a recent interview with the Global Times (GT) reporter Li Aixin, Zhou said that a stronger China could make the world safer, and the worst way of dealing with China is to turn it into an enemy.


GT: The title of your book Should the World Fear China? is very direct and attention-grabbing. In the introduction of the book, you mentioned that it was the first question you were asked in an interview with the German magazine Die Zeit in 2023, and you have not been able to forget this question since. Why was that question so unforgettable for you? 

Zhou: I do believe this is a fundamental question in the relationship between China and the West. After all, China's rise is already a reality. Its rise is no longer a question. Although China is deeply embedded in the global system today, there is still an uncertainty or even fear in the West: How can China grow stronger without becoming a hegemon? If you ask people from Africa or Latin America about the rise of China, they don't overthink it. If they do, they often see it as a good thing. But for the West, China's rise poses a fundamental challenge to its mindset.

There is a problem with that mindset. Many in the West believe in a so-called liberal international order - one that China never fully agreed to in the first place. Yet, because they believe in that order, China's rise inevitably challenges their assumptions and worldview.

GT: You pointed out that Western media often use terms like "aggressive" and "coercive" to describe China, but in reality, since 1979, China has not been involved in a single war. China has also demonstrated a peaceful and responsible attitude through its actions, whether in disaster relief, anti-piracy efforts or peacekeeping missions. This is seldom mentioned in Western media.

Zhou: They are deliberately blind to some of these facts. Sometimes I believe the West tries to blackmail China by using words such as "coercive" or "aggressive" because they cannot give a tangible example of an invasion or aggression. 

China's rise is absolutely peaceful and unprecedented in human history for a rising power. What could this mean for the world? China's rise is already a given. We don't know about the future, but based on these facts, we can probably conclude that a stronger China could make the world safer. The world can become safer, if China, as it becomes more powerful, continues to exercise self-restraint.

For example, in the South China Sea, people talk about how China has been "aggressive" or "coercive." But the fact is that China has never mentioned the use of force against any ASEAN claimant. Between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan island, there are three conditions under which we may have to use non-peaceful means. But with the ASEAN countries, we have never talked about the use of force. Therefore, when people say China might go to war with the Philippines, that is total nonsense. I don't believe it will be possible at all.

The fact is very simple: They deliberately stranded the ship at Ren'ai Jiao. That happened 26 years ago. If China wanted to do something, how easy would it be? That is a clear example of how we have exercised self-restraint.

GT: There is a long book review published in Foreign Affairs magazine that says the book offers "paeans to China as a responsible and stabilizing player in a chaotic world." Meanwhile, it also touches on the South China Sea, claiming that to cast China in a benign light is "implausible," because the Chinese coast guard used water cannons. What are your thoughts on these comments?

Zhou: I would say using water cannons is precisely a kind of deterrence to avoid the use of force. What would people think if I told you that, actually, between China - a major power - and the Philippines - a small country - it was the Filipinos who often used force against the Chinese?

This happened in 2000, 2006 and 2013, when the Philippine coast guard killed Chinese fishermen, both from the Chinese mainland and from Taiwan island. These incidents can be easily Googled. But you cannot provide me with a single example where China has tried to kill any Filipinos, even though between China and the Philippines, there has been no comparison of strength whatsoever - China has always been stronger than the Philippines. 

The Chinese use of water cannons might look impressive on TV, particularly because China is a very big country, but that is actually a kind of deterrence - to drive the Filipinos away from Chinese waters, Chinese islands and rocks.

GT: Let's talk about China-US ties. Were there any moments during the ongoing trade war or trade negotiations that particularly stood out to you?

Zhou: I believe the US is finding it increasingly difficult to deal with China, because China now holds more leverage than ever. Take, for example, rare earths. The US didn't expect China to have such a powerful advantage in this area - they were too confident about it themselves. That's why they launched a tariff war against the whole world, but especially against China. And what was the result? China didn't blink. It wasn't China that blinked first. 

GT: In a recent interview, you quoted Napoleon: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." But you also mentioned that the US is not China's enemy. This is a very wise expression. But if the US, while making mistakes - in the trade war, for example - is impacting China and even rallying its allies to create an exclusive rule-making system, what would be a wise response?

Zhou: I never believe that the US would be very successful in rallying its allies against China. How many American allies would actually take the US side when it comes to a worst-case scenario of a conflict between China and the US?

Of all the countries, we can count Japan at the top of the list. But even Japanese public opinion shows that very few people would like to see a direct conflict between China and Japan. Then there is Australia. Theoretically speaking, China has no reason to have a conflict with Australia. The only scenario would be if Australia were to assist the US at the Taiwan Straits or in the South China Sea. However, even the Australian government now refuses to side with the US in a potential conflict in Taiwan Straits. 

Then when you go down the list - who are the other countries? South Korea would certainly worry more about the Korean Peninsula and would always seek China's help regarding their concern for peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula.

The Philippines now is hedging. It has opened nine bases to the US. But even the Filipinos are not naive, as they have laid down conditions for the US to use these bases. They know that if the US launches attacks from these bases, then the soil of the Philippines would automatically become a target for Chinese counterstrikes.

The US believes that China wants to drive the US out of the Indo-Pacific. The US is also an Indo-Pacific country. How can China drive somebody away from his own home? China does not have such intention. This is a wrong description, and the worst way of dealing with China: to create an enemy, or at least a competitor.

GT: You've said that China and the US may never be best friends, but they can avoid becoming enemies. Given this context, what would a constructive China-US relationship look like?

Zhou: My best hope for what is arguably the most important relationship in the world can be summed up in one word: manageable. The question is: How can competitors coexist?

I believe it will take some time for the US to calm down and reshape its old mentality, because the US should have realized by now that it is not a "city upon the hill." 

Sometimes, the most difficult thing for the US is that people forget common sense. When the US talks about itself as "a city upon a hill," or claims to be an indispensable nation, I believe it has lost touch with some basic common sense. The common sense is realizing that the US, like China, or even a small island nation like the Maldives, is just one of many countries on this planet.

Here's an example I like to give: The Maldivians don't have the NBA. They don't have McDonald's. They don't have Hollywood. But so what? Every morning when they wake up, they see tourists coming from all over the world, telling them how beautiful their country is. They have their rightful place - not just in the ocean, but within humanity. From that perspective, they are equal to the big countries. 

And I believe if we give the US more time, it would find that it really needs China's help here and there. You can easily recall how the US, during the Joe Biden administration, asked China to help in the war in Ukraine. And US Secretary of State Marco Rubio  asked for China to help - to tell Iranians not to close the Strait of Hormuz. There are many calls coming from the US. 

What does that mean? That means China is really indispensable in almost every issue.

Should the World Fear China?
 

A stronger China could make the world safer