Photo taken on January. 23, 2026, shows a street television reporting news that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the House of Representatives earlier in the day for a snap general election on February 8. Photo: VCG

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Friday dissolved the lower house of parliament, paving the way for a snap election on February 8, a move that has sparked criticism within Japan. Some Chinese experts described the decision as "high-stakes political gamble" aimed at reinforcing her leadership and advancing a right-leaning economic and security agenda, warning that the outcome may also pose challenges to bilateral ties and regional stability.

Takaichi sees the February election as a way of gaining the public's mandate for her leadership of the ruling coalition, which consists of her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party (JIP). The two parties joined forces after the departure of Komeito from the ruling coalition after 26 years following the election of the conservative, hawkish Takaichi as LDP president, according to a report from the Japan Times on Friday.

The report also noted that this is the first time since 1990 that a snap election will take place in February — normally a time when parliament debates the budget for the next fiscal year. The budget bill must be approved in the lower and upper chambers by March 31, the end of the fiscal year, and there are concerns that the election will delay the bill's passage. Prior to the dissolution of the Lower House, the LDP-JIP coalition held a razor-thin majority of 233 seats in the 465-seat chamber.

Takaichi's move is a "high-stakes political gamble", Xiang Haoyu, a research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times on Friday. He noted Takaichi is betting on "high approval ratings" to win a snap election, attempting to expand her party's majority, and consolidate her grip on power. 

But the timing breaks with political convention in Japan and dissolving the lower house at the very start of a regular Diet session—just as deliberations on the 2026 budget are about to begin—is unusual and risks disrupting passage of a budget critical to government operations, economic stability, and people's livelihoods. Such a move puts personal and partisan interests above the national interest, said Xiang.

Takaichi also seeks a fresh electoral mandate to shore up her authority amid doubts over her right-leaning economic and security policies. At the same time, the move preempts a possible no-confidence motion and sidesteps sustained scrutiny of policy failures and scandals involving the LDP and the controversial Unification Church. This high-risk gamble underscores her assertive political style—one that could just as easily bring her premiership to an abrupt end if it backfires, said Xiang. 

Lü Chao, a professor at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, said that Takaichi's apparently high approval ratings are largely driven by accumulated public discontent over long-term economic stagnation, falling living standards, and issues such as the consumption tax, rather than genuine support for the LDP or right-wing forces. 

Against this backdrop, the post-dissolution election remains highly unpredictable—far less favorable than Takaichi's camp seems to expect, Lü told the Global Times on Friday. 

Former Japanese diplomat Hitoshi Tanaka criticized the move on X on Friday, saying that "they're forcing a third national election in just 1 year and 3 months, creating yet another political vacuum… Reckless fiscal policy combined with hardline anti-China rhetoric is plunging the Japanese economy into a serious crisis. I have absolutely no desire to vote for a Liberal Democratic Party that so shamelessly and arrogantly follows such a leader who completely disregards the people." 

Takaichi's move has also drawn criticism in recent days. In a report on Friday, Tokyo Shimbun said that the decision has plunged the country into an "extremely short election campaign", with official campaigning starting from January 27 and voting and ballot counting set for February 8. The paper also cited LDP election and political adviser Akira Kume as saying, "If I were to give it a name, I would call it a 'mysterious election.' I think many voters are puzzled and wondering why the dissolution was necessary."

Previously, Kume was cited by Jiji Press as saying that calling an election before achieving tangible outcomes lacks a convincing rationale. The secrecy surrounding the decision to dissolve parliament has led to deep mistrust of the prime minister within the LDP's leadership. 

The Asahi Shimbun said in a report on Friday that "the 16-day period from dissolution to voting marks the shortest election cycle in Japan's post-war history" and the move has drawn sharp criticism from opposition parties, who call it a "self-serving dissolution to evade Diet deliberations."

Opposition parties swiftly condemned the dissolution as a self-serving tactic to dodge difficult questions in the Diet. "At a time when there is so much that needs to be done about rising prices, I see absolutely no justification for dissolving the Lower House," said Yoshihiko Noda, co-leader of the newly formed Centrist Reform Alliance, according to Asahi Shimbun.

Uncertainty looms

In a report on Friday, the Japan Times said the February 8 election will also be the first electoral test for the Centrist Reform Alliance, a party hastily formed by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito. Up for grabs are 289 district seats and 176 proportional representation seats, the latter of which are distributed by a party among its representatives depending on the number of votes it secures.

On Friday, after the lower house was dissolved, in the plenary chamber, lawmakers from the ruling LDP cheered in the session, while opposition lawmakers remained silent and heckles of "this violates the Constitution" were heard from the opposition benches, according to Japanese media outlet Tokyo Sports.

Xiang noted that Takaichi also pushed through a snap dissolution to undercut the opposition while the Centrist Reform Alliance is still taking shape. The alliance's emergence, he said, reflects growing unease over Takaichi's hard-right trajectory and marks a tentative realignment among moderate political forces in Japan seeking to check Japan's rightward drift.

While the new alliance may not immediately loosen the LDP's grip on power, Xiang added that sustained opposition coordination and stronger appeal to centrist voters have injected significant uncertainty into the election and could, over time, reshape Japan's political landscape and curb further rightward polarization.

According to Fuji News Network on Friday, the House of Representatives was dissolved at the Diet on Friday, marking the start of the election campaign. The newly formed "Centrist Reform Alliance", established by the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, quickly put forward a proposal to cut the consumption tax on food. Co-leader Yoshihiko Noda said he aims to "create a swell of centrist momentum." Many involved said "the outcome remains impossible to predict until the very end" as a tense and closely fought election campaign gets underway.

Xiang also noted that the upcoming election outcome may further impact China-Japan relations. If the right-wing camp led by Takaichi emerges stronger amid Japan's increasingly conservative political climate, her hardline and misguided China policies, particularly regarding China's Taiwan region could be pursued with fewer restraints, prolonging bilateral tensions and worsening regional security through accelerated military expansion. 

Lü also noted that regardless of whether Takaichi wins or loses her political gamble, Japan's broader rightward drift has already set China and the wider Asia-Pacific on alert. Persistent signs of militarism and historical revisionism are unlikely to fade and could resurface when conditions allow, posing risks not only to Japanese society but to regional stability. 

"More than Takaichi's personal political fate, the growing influence of these forces is the core concern for peace and stability in the region," said the expert.