Hydrologists at Saint Petersburg State University have developed a specialized program designed to calculate the characteristics of outburst floods. The solution enables forecasting of potential breaches in earthen dams that retain reservoirs, as well as sudden releases of water from glacial lakes confined by moraine barriers, offering valuable support for emergency preparedness, reports the university's website.

The newly developed system provides detailed modelling of possible dam failures by analyzing parameters such as dam dimensions, elevation relative to the water body, and soil composition.

According to project leader Galina Pryakhina, Candidate of Geographical Sciences and Acting Head of the Department of Land Hydrology, the program also accounts for the heterogeneity of soils and incorporates two principal failure mechanisms: overtopping and internal erosion.

Unlike a number of existing methodologies, the model integrates complex physical characteristics of dam materials, improving the accuracy of projections. It is particularly suited to remote mountainous areas where hydrological monitoring stations are limited, relying instead on expedition data and satellite imagery.

Looking ahead, researchers plan to expand the program’s functionality by incorporating water inflow calculations, enabling more comprehensive modelling of lake systems under changing environmental conditions.