US, Iran reportedly reach ceasefire deal; move has clear de-escalatory effect, but uncertainties remain: Chinese experts
By Published: Jun 15, 2026 11:30 AM
Commercial vessels are seen in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz on March 22, 2026 in northern Ras al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates. Photo: VCG
After nearly four months of intense military conflict and a stringent maritime blockade, the situation in the Middle East has reportedly reached a major turning point. The US and Iran have said that they have reached a peace deal, which will be signed on Friday, according to various media reports on Monday.
Some Chinese observers said that the agreement itself has a clear de-escalatory effect on tensions in the Middle East; however, many details of the deal remain unclear at this stage, and uncertainties remain, given some lingering disputes and Israel’s reported discontent with the deal.
"The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," US President Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform around 5:30 pm ET local time in Washington on Sunday. His post came shortly after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose country has served as a mediator, announced a deal had been struck early on Monday local time, Reuters reported.
The memorandum of understanding (MoU) is scheduled to be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, according to Reuters.
The Associated Press (AP) described it as an initial agreement to end the US-Iran war and open the Strait of Hormuz, offering relief to the Gulf region and global economy more than three months since fighting began.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that the MoU between Iran and the US has been finalized and will be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, Iranian media Tasnim reported on Monday.
The Iranian deputy minister said that starting Monday night, the US naval blockade against Iran will be terminated, along with “the immediate and permanent end of the war and military operations on various fronts, including Lebanon,” according to Tasnim.
The announcement of the agreement means tensions in the Middle East are expected to ease significantly, with the intensity of regional conflicts likely to decline substantially, Sun Degang, director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University, told the Global Times on Monday.
As expectations grow for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic, energy markets will likely return to a level of stability that would undoubtedly be positive news for the global economy, Sun said.
Trump said the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for global oil and gas supplies that Iran has effectively shut down for months and was also blockaded by the US military, would open on Friday, and that he had ordered the end of the US blockade of Iranian ports, Reuters reported.
Oil prices fell on the news. At one point, Brent crude futures fell 4 percent in early trading on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate slid more than 4.6 percent, according to Reuters.
If the US and Iran are able to formally sign the MoU as planned, the months-long confrontation between the two countries will, for the most part, come to an end; however, uncertainties remain over whether disruptive factors could emerge during the implementation phase of the agreement, Sun said.
Broader negotiations on outstanding issues like Iran’s nuclear program would continue over the next 60 days, AP reported, citing two senior Pakistani officials. If the sides fail to reach a resolution within that time, the timeline could be extended, per the AP report.
At the implementation stage of the MoU, the US and its European allies are likely to demonstrate relatively strong willingness and capacity to implement the deal, suggesting that overall implementation could proceed relatively smoothly; however, there remains a significant possibility that Israel may attempt to create obstacles, and this risk should not be underestimated, Zhu Yongbiao, a Middle East affairs expert with Lanzhou University, told the Global Times on Monday.
“Given that Israel's willingness to embrace a ceasefire remains limited, the principal actors in the conflict may shift substantially, leaving the regional security situation subject to continued uncertainty,” Zhu said.
The UK, France, Germany and Italy said they are prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US and Iran reached a deal to end their war, the leaders of the countries said in a joint statement, according to Xinhua.
Meanwhile, Israel’s military actions in Lebanon have reportedly posed obstacles for the US-Iran deal. On Sunday local time, the Israeli military struck a Hezbollah headquarters in the Dahieh district, south of Beirut, triggering warnings of retaliation from Iran and casting new uncertainty over an emerging US-Iran deal, Xinhua reported.
Notably, speaking with the New York Times (NYT) on Sunday local time, Trump praised Chinese and Russian leaders for aiding in the settlement. He also called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “a very difficult guy,” for mounting attacks that nearly derailed the final agreement, the NYT reported.
Another NYT report on Monday also said that in Israel, there is “broad discontent even before the deal’s details are known,” adding that “Israelis across the political spectrum have said the agreement appears to leave fundamental security threats posed by Iran unaddressed.”
This could potentially create uncertainty for the US-Iran deal, according to Sun. “As a result, it is still difficult to determine whether new variables or complications may emerge during the implementation of the agreement in the future,” he said.
China has actively promoted peace talks and called for a ceasefire. In responding to a question regarding the latest situation in the region at a regular press conference on Thursday, Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, urged the parties concerned to halt military actions at once, return to dialogue and negotiation, and respond to relevant countries’ mediation efforts so that a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire could be realized as soon as possible.
“Since the outbreak of the conflict, China has maintained close communication with all relevant parties, including Iran, and has been making active efforts to promote ceasefire and peace,” Lin said.
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