IMF Headquarters in the US. File Photo: Xinhua

By Brasil 247 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Brazil's economic growth in 2026 to 2.4 percent, while projecting a slowdown in the global economy amid external uncertainties, including the effects of the conflict between the US and Iran on markets, trade and energy. The information is based on a report by Brasil 247, citing the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook.

The revised estimate for Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) was released on Wednesday. The IMF had previously projected 1.9 percent growth for the Brazilian economy in its April report.

The revision represents a 0.5 percentage-point increase in the IMF's outlook for Brazil in 2026. The Fund also improved its forecast for 2027, raising expected growth to 2.2 percent from the previous estimate of 2 percent.

The upward revision had already been mentioned by Deputy Finance Minister Dario Durigan during an economic forum held at Brazil's National Development Bank (BNDES) last week. The IMF's confirmation reinforces expectations that Brazil's economy will expand at a faster pace than previously anticipated despite a more unstable international environment.

At the global level, however, the IMF adopted a more cautious tone. The Fund slightly lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.1 percent to 3 percent. For 2027, it projects global growth of 3.4 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points compared with its April forecast.

According to the report, the global economy is expected to experience a moderate slowdown, influenced by the effects of the conflict between the US and Iran. The IMF said geopolitical tensions could affect energy prices, trade flows and investment decisions, increasing volatility in international markets.

At the same time, the Fund said part of these negative effects could be offset by an acceleration in the global technology cycle. Increased investment in innovation, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and digital infrastructure is identified as a factor that could support growth in several economies.

The report also states that risks to the global economy are more balanced than in its previous edition published in April. However, the projections were finalized before the US announced that its ceasefire with Iran could come to an end, a development that may add further uncertainty to the international outlook.

For Brazil, the IMF's improved outlook comes as the country continues to monitor inflation, interest rates, public finances and labor market performance. The new 2.4 percent growth forecast for 2026 indicates that the Fund now expects the Brazilian economy to have greater expansion capacity despite a more challenging external environment.

(Reported by Brasil 247 on July 9, 2026)