Editor’s Notes:
As the icecaps melt, the Arctic Ocean is turning from a frozen backwater into a crucial geopolitical zone. How will the opening up of the far north affect the world? What should China’s Arctic strategy be? The following is an interview by the Global Times (GT) reporter Li Yanjie with Guo Peiqing (Guo), professor of the Law and Politics School, Ocean University of China, on Arctic issues.

Guo Peiqing

GT: In recent years, there has been fierce competition over the Arctic. Russia, the US and the European Union have all staked claims there. Why are these countries fighting so hard for this region? What strategic and economic interests are at stake?

Guo: Since 2007, the countries bordering the Arctic have been scrambling to seize the area because of its abundant resources and because global warming is making it more important. Over time, the finiteness of earth resources has caused the big powers to focus more on the “Four Extremes” – outer space, deep sea and the two poles.

Surveys show that nearly a quarter of the world’s undiscovered oil and gas lie beneath the Arctic seabed, and the region is rich in minerals such as gold, iron, coal and diamonds. As rising temperatures melt the polar ice cap, a lot of commercial fish stocks have migrated into the Arctic Ocean, which will become a large fishing ground in the near future. Navigation routes will also open up as the ice melts, perhaps 40 percent shorter than the southern route through Suez and Panama and will increase the ocean’s military significance.

GT: How will these countries’ dispute over the Arctic Ocean affect the world’s political and economic landscape?

Guo: Arctic disputes will lead to tensions, but are very unlikely to touch off a major war. Nowadays, the chance of wars between the great powers is small, and disputes are settled through international law, which is why reliable data is important to settle Arctic affairs. This is one of the main reasons why many countries are investing hugely in scientific studies there.

These affairs aren’t just regional, but international, and require cooperation worldwide, especially with the interactions between the fragile Arctic environment and climate change. Circumpolar nations have to understand that Arctic affairs are not only regional issues but also international ones.

GT: China is far away from the Arctic Ocean. How does this affect China?

Guo: My foreign counterparts often ask me this, and many of them are worried about China’s motives. To China, the Arctic is important for four reasons; environment, science, resources and navigation. The Arctic, one of the two largest sources of cold air, greatly influences China’s climate. For instance, the disastrous cold and snow in 2008, which killed many people over Spring Festival, originated in the Arctic.

China lies far from the Arctic, but today resources are globalized, and so the exploitation and transportation of Arctic oil and gas create opportunities for Chinese capital. All nations also hold a share of the Arctic.

China’s primary interest, though, is in navigation; an arctic passage will change the pattern of world trade and cause the emergency of a super-economic rim in Russia, North America, and northern Europe, opening a new corridor to China. A lot of Chinese trade passes through the Malacca Straits and Suez, but with piracy and other problems, such as traffic jams in the Suez Canal, the southern route is becoming riskier, so the northern passage offers great opportunities.

GT: What policies should China adopt in the Arctic?

Guo: Since China has great interests in the Arctic, and is closely interrelated with Arctic governance, it is unreasonable to maintain “neutrality” or stay clear of Arctic affairs. Actually, Arctic states have been paying more attention to China’s attitude, and hope to learn what interests and requirements China has in Arctic.

For example, before the convening of the Conference of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region last August, the US and other Arctic states sent invitation to Chinese representatives to participating in the conference. The situation is favorable to China, which can play a key part on the Arctic disputes, promote Arctic affairs toward internationalization, and drive the Arctic governance forward with justification and impartiality.

At present, China takes only a modest part in Arctic affairs. Of the many Arctic international organizations, China only participates in the Arctic Council and Arctic Science Committee. Research on Arctic politics and law is just beginning, and no Chinese scholars have attended the international academic conferences on the Arctic.

China must strengthen its research into various Arctic related topics, and take an active part in international activities. The Chinese government should apply to be a member or observer of Arctic international organizations. After all, China is moving from a regional power into a world power, and needs to develop a truly global strategy.

GT: Could the Antarctica Treaty be used as a reference to resolve the Arctic dispute?

Guo: After Russian scientists planted their national flag in the seabed of the Arctic in 2007, a previously quiet ocean was stirred into chaos.

There have been many suggestions as to how to resolve the issues around the area, and a popular one is ‘copying’ the Antarctic Treaty.

However, I don’t think it’s a realistic model for the Arctic. After all, the main body of the southern pole is a frozen continent, but in the north we have an ocean bordering the territory of five countries. Nobody has ever occupied the Antarctic, whereas the Arctic has been the subject of many previous agreements. The Arctic has been a critical military region at points, such as in World War II, or when the US and USSR faced each other across it during the Cold War, whereas the Antarctic is demilitarized. The laws around the Arctic are complicated and tangled, and there are many competing rights.

So this kind of model, which has worked very successfully in the south, simply can’t be applied to the northern pole.