India racing to secure stake in Myanmar

By Li Ying Source:Global Times Published: 2012-5-24 19:40:03

Manmohan Singh will start his trip to Myanmar on Sunday, the first Indian Prime Minister in 25 years to visit this neighboring country since former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi's visit in 1987.

Some Indian experts take this visit as just another example of India being late to the game, since Chinese and even US leaders have already visited.

However, I don't see Singh's trip to this Southeast Asian nation as a significant change, or as merely following the lead of the US or others.

Under the aegis of its "Look East Policy," the significant shift in India's policy toward Myanmar actually took place in the 1990s, from support for the pro-democracy movement to engaging the pro-military government.

Considering Myanmar's geostrategic significance, it is crucial for India to befriend Myanmar, which is the only Southeast Asian country with which it shares a 1,600-kilometer land border. It serves as India's land-bridge to the other 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

The other main reason for India to maintain a stable bilateral relationship is because of Myanmar's rich oil and natural gas resources, which India's booming economy desperately needs.

India has been searching the world for energy resources, and Myanmar could be India's next-door supplier, which will enable India to cut down on transportation costs and the risks involved.

Moreover, Myanmar shares a long border with India's northeastern regions, which has many active militant groups.

Many of these groups used to shelter in Myanmar. Close ties will help India persuade Myanmar not to take anti-India elements in.

But I also have to admit that Singh's trip is an obvious sign of India picking up the pace to bolster bilateral ties. As one of the big stakeholders in Myanmar, India is concerned about being neglected once the US has also joined the competition over the country.

With Myanmar's new openness to the West, dominated by the US, and China's ongoing influence in the nation, India has actually been edged out of the main stage while both the US and China are doing whatever they can to gain the favor of economically struggling, strategically placed Myanmar. This is not a situation that India wants to see.

India is accelerating its investment in infrastructure development in Myanmar to compete with China, whose relationship with Myanmar became strained after the government of Myanmese President Thein Sein suspended construction in September 2011 of a dam being built with Chinese support. India's trade with Myanmar also doubled between 2005 and 2010 to $1.2 billion.

Besides, India is closely monitoring whether the China-Myanmar relationship will take on a military dimension in case rumors about China attempting to build naval and intelligence facilities in Myanmar turn into reality.

As for how much the warming ties will fix India's awkward position in Myanmar, I cannot be that optimistic.

China and Myanmar are long-time friends with a history of bilateral exchanges, economic complementarities and geopolitical ties. And the two countries appear to be moving to mend their links, with Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo meeting with Thein Sein in Nay Pyi Taw in December.

The US has announced a shift to the Asia-Pacific region and it will not be easy for the White House to drop its interest in the country, which would of course make India a less important player in Myanmar.

It is in India's interest to encourage Myanmar to take the current political reforms to their logical conclusion for free and fair elections in 2015, but whether it is in Myanmar's interest to take India as a main ally still needs consideration.

The article was compiled by Global Times reporter Li Ying based on an interview with Ye Hailin, an expert in South Asian studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. liying0101@globaltimes.com.cn 

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